Ukraine conflict may go nuclear

Putin alarms the West

MOSCOW: The conflict in Ukraine appears set for a dangerous escalation after Russia signalled it would annex swathes of the war-torn country, a move that could involve the Kremlin threatening to use nuclear weapons to force Kyiv to back down.

Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhya regions said they would stage referendums this week on splitting away from Ukraine and joining Russia.

Russia’s parliament approved laws that for the first time mentioned possible mobilisation and martial law as Vladimir Putin weighed his next move in the war. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said the separatist-held territories should be free to “decide their own destiny”.

A White House spokesman called the proposed referendums “an affront to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity” and said the US would never recognise the results. He said the US was aware of the Kremlin’s mobilisation threat and that it was a sign that Russia was “scraping for personnel” to throw into a war it was losing.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg described the referendums as a “further escalation in Putin’s war”. If Moscow annexes the regions, Ukrainian forces would find themselves fighting with Western weapons on territory Russia considers its own, he said.

The Kremlin could then say it would be justified in using nuclear weapons to force them to retreat, a senior official in Moscow appeared to suggest.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows the use of weapons of mass destruction if the country faces an existential threat from conventional weapons.

“Encroachment on Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self-defence,” claimed Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and prime minister who is now the deputy head of Russia’s national security council.

“This is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and the West.” The regions represent 15 per cent of Ukraine.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst, wrote: “This is an unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West. Either Ukraine retreats or it is nuclear war.”

Mr Putin, meanwhile, delayed his expected address to the nation, his first since the invasion of Ukraine, without explanation. It was expected Putin was going to focus on the referendums in the Russianoccupied areas, while the US believed it would be announcement of a “general mobilisation” of the Russian military in a possible pretext for fullscale war.

As broadcasters awaited the speech for hours, there was no sign of Mr Putin and no reason was given for his absence.

British army officer General Richard Shirreff told Sky News it suggested “a certain amount of chaos” at the Kremlin.

Mr Putin’s former adviser, Sergei Markov, announced on Telegram the national address had been delayed for a day.