A serious warning in Taiwan’s war footing
THE people of Taiwan are in no doubt – conflict with China is coming. They even have a year: 2027. Why? Because Xi Jinping will be about to end his third term in power and will want something big to show for a fourth term as president.
2027 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army and what better way to mark the celebration of an army, than to use it for an invasion that aims to make China whole again.
If that does happen, what follows is a conflict that threatens to draw in the entire region, Australia included.
I’ve just returned from filming in Taipei, where I talked to senior leaders and ordinary people about Beijing’s openly stated aim to “reunify” the island nation with greater China.
Interestingly, “reunify” is a word China often uses. For the Taiwanese, it’s just “unify” as they don’t feel they’ve ever been a part of the mainland.
Semantics aside, what I learnt was frightening – and inspiring.
Students told me they’re ready to take up arms and become citizen soldiers. This isn’t hyperbole. For months, shooting ranges have been experiencing surging applications as ordinary Taiwanese learn to handle firearms.
Our film crew recorded civilians taking part in disciplined firing drills that looked more like the realm of special forces. We walked the narrow streets that would become that most nightmarish of battlegrounds – urban warfare – if invading forces were to get past the formidable coastal defences of bunkers and beach obstacles. We visited those, too.
Yet the Taiwanese don’t want war and are far from gung-ho.
“It would be over within a day,” one older man assured me, highly aware of China’s massively superior military might.
But others aren’t so certain. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu impressed upon me Ukraine’s fighting force which was all but written off against a bigger, stronger enemy. Almost a year on it’s still standing strong against the Russian invaders. Beware of the underdog.
Life in Taiwan goes on as normal, with an unsettling twist. Senior leaders reveal how Chinese air sorties over and around Taiwan are increasing relentlessly – a worrying display of sabre-rattling – while cyber attacks on critical facilities are a constant menace.
Frightening enough for Taiwan, but what does all this mean for Australians? After all, we are only 7000km away. The Australian military experts I spoke to for this documentary were in little doubt: Australia would be involved.
The US has already said it would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack. And as America’s key ally in the region, it would be incumbent upon us to assist.
Exactly how that would happen is a great unknown. Would we send troops to fight? Would we be a support and logistics base? Would we find ourselves a target?
Australia needs to prepare. Yesterday. The documentary is called Are We Ready For War? I fear the answer is no.
ARE WE READY FOR WAR? Presented by Peter Stefanovic. Screens on Sky News at 7.30pm, Wednesday, February 15