Our man in Washington in strife if Trump wins
As we head into the back nine of this parliamentary term, along with the domestic concerns that are likely to be at issue at the next poll, it is looking increasingly likely you can add foreign policy.
The reason for that is simple: Donald Trump.
As we head into 2024 all the polls say the same thing – not only is Trump an unbackable favourite to be the Republican candidate at next November’s election, the chances of him beating Joe Biden in their return match are evens if not better.
As you can imagine, this the prospect of the second coming of the Orange man is occupying the minds of the world’s political leaders and would be a hot topic of conversation at those global get-togethers that take up so much of their time.
The obvious reason for this is the uncertainty it promises.
If there’s one thing everyone seems to agree on about Trump II it’s they can’t really say what it will be like.
To be sure, there’s no mystery about what the former president’s instincts in foreign policy are, but last time, despite the rhetoric, his administration conformed to what we might call international norms, if for no other reason than the people around him were able to restrain those instincts.
Speaking to conservative figures here who are familiar with foreign policy establishment in Washington, the view there is there’s no guarantee this will be the case if Trump II does, indeed, come to pass.
That’s firstly because the list of people who will be prepared to swallow their pride and serve in his administration, or to “put up with the crazy” as one of them put it to me this week, will be much smaller.
The other is while Trump has always freestyled on what he likes to do – from pushing up tariffs, to dumping China’s most-favoured nation trading status, not to mention rejigging NATO – it’s hard to tell how much of it is just talk.
What would a second Trump administration mean for Australia.
Obviously any further deterioration in the already bad relations between the US and China would be unwelcome for our government, which has just succeeded in getting our relationship with Beijing on an even keel.
What about AUKUS? Where does the former President stand on that?
Publicly we’ve no idea because no one has yet succeed in asking him.
And in private? Ministers admit they have no real idea either.
Luckily, in Kevin Rudd Australia has the man just to navigate us through the shark-infested waters of a second Trump administration. Sorry I couldn’t help that.
In reality it’s hard to think of anyone less suited to advancing our interests in Washington if Trump comes back.
For while the Ruddster may have moved on from the time he managed to get “traitor to the West” and “rancid treachery” into a single tweet about the Donald, it’s unlikely the former president has.
Rudd might be right that he can work with both sides of American politics.
But given the evident difficulties we had getting the necessary legislation for AUKUS passed with the full backing of the current administration, it doesn’t bear thinking about how it will fare in the face of a hostile Trump.
What would the domestic political consequences be if Trump were, indeed, to be hostile to AUKUS?
A full-on isolationist Trump would be a gift to the anti-American wing of the ALP, the Keating fans out in the branches who have only accepted AUKUS on sufferance.
You don’t have to have much imagination either to picture Peter Dutton staring into the cameras and explaining our defence future had been imperilled by the Prime Minister’s self-indulgence in sending a man who has insulted the US president as our ambassador.
That there’s a chunk of the Liberal voter “base” who are Trump fans will also be a factor in how he handles this situation.
But to Albo, It’s hard to see what he can do to improve this situation.
He can’t get rid of Rudd ahead of the election because that would not only be an admission that he should never have sent him there but a signal the Australian government expects Biden to lose.
If it does come to pass that Trump is elected next November, perhaps Kevin will see immediately that he’s no longer the right man for the job and put his country’s interests before his own by resigning.
Sorry, I could help that one either.