Banning Trump strengthens his campaign

On a recent trip back to Melbourne, my friends and family all wanted to know: is Donald Trump going to win the election? My answer – that he very well could – shocked them, not because they’re all left-wing voters, but because most Australians have never been able to comprehend his enduring popularity.

I don’t blame them. The closer Trump gets to returning to the White House, the more obvious it is that he remains a mystery to much of the US too. While I was travelling, two states barred Trump from running this November, deciding he breached a constitutional ban on insurrectionists holding public office.

Putting aside the questionable legality of the move, given Trump has not been convicted of such a crime, it is a horrible political own goal for Democrats who sought and celebrated it.

Trump’s persona is the fearless outsider fighting the establishment, a narrative he often perpetuates with conspiracies. Banning him from seeking election makes his case for him, strengthening his bond with fearful and furious voters.

After Trump won last Monday’s Iowa caucuses, several TV stations cut off his speech. This is not unusual – his appearances are rarely shown live by some networks that argue doing so allows his lies to go unchecked – but it similarly shows Trump’s supporters that he is being silenced by his enemies, and it treats them as though they can’t be trusted to listen to the former and potential future president.

Yes, Trump’s appeal is hypocritical. In office, he failed to improve the lives of many who voted for him to do so, and he appears more interested in returning to power to fight for himself against criminal charges than to fight for his supporters.

But that doesn’t matter to many Trump voters, for whom his fight has become theirs.

Even his closest rivals struggle to understand the loyalty he inspires. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis promised to succeed as Trump without the drama. Instead, he is Trump without the comedy, speaking in acronyms, scripting his attacks and struggling to smile.

Why would Trump’s supporters ditch the entertaining original for an uncharismatic replica?

When my friends and family pushed me on Trump’s chances, I said I struggled to see him winning over Americans who have not supported him before. But those who have seem far more motivated than those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Without compulsory voting, that could make all the difference.