Queensland 2020 elections will be a test of state's Covid response
The 2020 Queensland election will be the first test at a statewide level of whether governments that have generally succeeded in suppressing the Covid-19 pandemic can turn that success into a strong election result.
On paper, even pre-pandemic, it would have been surprising for Labor to struggle at this election, as Labor has the advantage of not being in office federally.
Voters often vote differently at state and federal elections, whether to send messages to Canberra or because they like having different parties in power at different levels. Only seven state governments have lost while their party was in opposition federally in the past fifty years, all of them older than Annastacia Palaszczuk’s. Loss of a governing majority, or a change of premier during the term, were factors in many of those defeats.
This said, Palaszczuk’s government is more vulnerable than most in this situation. A net loss of two seats would cost it a majority, and a net loss of four or more could spell defeat, depending on the size and makeup of the crossbench. The government has also had a difficult second term, marred especially by controversies that led to former deputy premier and treasurer Jackie Trad resigning from the ministry in May.
No statewide polls by well-known pollsters have been released since a late July Newspoll had the Liberal National opposition with a slender 51-49 twoparty preferred lead (well inside the intheory margin of error).
This was despite high satisfaction with Annastacia Palaszczuk’s performance (64% satisfied, 29% dissatisfied). Such disconnection between personal approval for the leader and party support has also been present in federal polling, and other recent elections and by-elections have provided mixed evidence as to whether the pandemic is helping governments at the ballot box.
Until the pandemic, Palaszczuk was polling poor personal ratings, and preexisting perceptions may have made it harder to immediately turn the pandemic to her party’s advantage. Historically, state premiers whose net satisfaction falls well below zero at any stage of their term are seldom re-elected, but past premiers have rarely had such a golden chance to reset perceptions.
Polling since July has been confined to small commissioned polls of groups of seats, polls by non-regular pollsters, and strategically released party seat polling – all of which should be treated with special caution.
Queensland elections have high proportions of marginal seats, in this case fairly evenly balanced between the parties. Following a nightmare 2019 federal result in northern Queensland, Labor could fear swings that might wipe out its marginal seats around Townsville (Townsville, Mundingburra where the incumbent is retiring, Thuringowa) and also threaten Rockhampton and Mackay area seats on Labor-v-LNP margins of several percent. Overlaying any federal patterns onto Queensland state elections is, however, very risky. Labor has held office for 26 of the last 31 years despite winning the Queensland federal two-party preferred vote just twice in all that time.
A fairly strong result in the Currumbin by-election supported the view that Labor could do well in the southeast, especially with the LNP’s latest unpopular leader Deb Frecklington hailing from north of Brisbane. Currumbin itself is a general election target, and if things go well for Labor it has several other Gold Coast and Brisbane chances, as well as Pumicestone and Caloundra where LNP incumbents are retiring. The Gold Coast is a significant area for pandemic impacts, since closeness to the border could make residents feel both more inconvenienced and more protected by border closures than residents elsewhere. If there is no overall swing in the south-east, the personal votes picked up by new members in five Brisbane and Gold Coast seats Labor gained from the LNP in 2017 should benefit Labor in retaining seats there.
Minor parties may struggle for attention because of the focus on Covid-19 issues, but this has not been consistently obvious in the pandemicera elections so far. If the One Nation vote holds, targets for the party include Thuringowa (which it could have just won in 2017 had the LNP preferenced it there), Keppel (if it stays second, which might or might not happen) and Maryborough. Even a slight fall in the One Nation vote would make any new seats very hard for the party to win. Regional parties (especially Katter’s Australian Party, but also expelled ex-LNP MP Jason Costigan’s North Queensland First) will be seeking further success in the far north.
The Greens have never yet lost an Australian state or federal seat that they previously won at a general election under a single-seat electoral system, which bodes well for their chances of keeping Maiwar. They are also targeting South Brisbane (held by Trad) and McConnel (held by Grace Grace). Their prospects in South Brisbane may depend on the LNP going through with its threat to put them above Trad on the LNP how-to-vote card. In McConnel, the Greens need to get ahead of Labor after minor party preferences, which they fell 5.9% short of achieving in 2017.