The Observer view on Donald Trump's coronavirus infection
Donald Trump’s infection has given another dramatic twist to an already tumultuous and perilous US election year. The president’s illness is a significant personal blow. Hopefully, both he and the first lady will recover quickly. The fact Trump has succumbed to a disease he spent many months downplaying and dismissing is also a serious political setback. It raises basic questions about his judgment as well as his health with less than a month remaining before the 3 November poll.
Impartial observers may say that Trump’s very human misfortune in catching a virus that has killed more than a million people worldwide, including 208,000 Americans, should not adversely affect his political prospects. But such generosity of spirit ignores the harshly subjective realities of the Trump era. Ever since he emerged as a candidate for national office, it has been all but impossible to separate the personal from the political. That’s primarily because Trump invariably makes everything about him.
Trump has used the multimilliondollar personal fortune he inherited from his father to relentlessly boost his political profile. His business ventures are routinely branded with his name. He demands personal credit for almost anything positive that happens in Washington. And when his political actions as president are criticised, Trump, his ego affronted, invariably takes it personally. A recurring theme in his speeches and tweets is a selfcentred grievance over perceived unfair treatment.
To ask that Trump’s outspoken, damaging and dangerous denialism about the threat the virus poses should not now colour the way voters regard him, or affect the way opponents react, is to ask too much. Sympathy for his personal plight will certainly grow, the more so if his condition deteriorates. But his persistently reckless conduct over Covid-19 will incur an unavoidably high political price. Trump must now face the consequences of his actions in a way that, during the course of a highly privileged life, he rarely has.
Thanks to his illness, the pandemic he sought to wish away now heads the election agenda. His record, stretching back to the arrival of the disease in the US last winter, is being endlessly re-examined and replayed. It was Trump, not his more cautiously responsible Democrat rival, Joe Biden, who declared in January that “we have it totally under control”. It was Trump who likened it to ordinary flu and predicted that “one day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear”.
Trump has since claimed he played down the pandemic to avoid panic. But what seemed to panic him most was the thought it might harm his reelection chances. He failed to develop a national testing strategy, passed the buck to underfunded and unprotected states and cities, undermined scientific advice and public messaging, promoted quack cures, such as injecting bleach, and mocked crucial social distancing and mask-wearing measures. However ill he is, this saga of lethal incompetence cannot be glossed over.
As late as last Tuesday evening, while debating with Biden face to face when he himself may have been infectious, Trump continued to mock the Democrat for taking sensible precautions, as if mask wearing somehow compromised his manhood. “Trump is now in the position of becoming Exhibit No1 for the failure of his leadership on coronavirus,” said Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. “It’s hard to imagine this doesn’t end his hopes of reelection,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant.
For all that his opponents may wish it, that latter verdict sounds premature. Other major issues – the economy, racial justice, a Supreme Court replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg – will continue to influence voter choices. And while Trump has been a prime source of misinformation about Covid-19, a new Axios/Ipsos survey found that, on this subject, more than two-thirds of Americans do not trust anyone in the federal government.
If Trump can ride out the infection in hospital, overcome potentially negative factors such as his age (74) and his obesity, and emerge from quarantine within 10 days or so, it’s conceivable he could again turn the personal to political advantage. Boris Johnson briefly managed this trick in Britain after he left intensive care in April. In such a case, Trump may portray a reprieve as proof of his contention that the Covid-19 threat is overrated.
If, on the other hand, Trump’s illness gets worse or is prolonged, the United States, and the world, will enter uncharted waters. His campaign plans are already on hold. It is probable the next debate with Biden, due on 15 October, will be postponed. In theory at least, Trump could be unable to continue as the Republican candidate. In extremis, the vice-president, Mike Pence, might take his place in the Oval Office.
It’s important that Trump recovers, not least for the much-challenged integrity of the electoral process. It’s important that he be called to account at the ballot box and, it’s hoped, be defeated by an indisputably large margin. For it is America’s recovery, not his, that is ultimately most important of all. The American people must, and surely will, find a peaceful, healthy, and constitutional way through this dark crisis year for US democracy. This can only be achieved if all work together. E pluribus unum – out of the many, one.
His persistently reckless conduct over Covid-19 will incur an unavoidably high political price