China building more than 100 ‘nuclear’ missile silos in desert
China is building more than 100 missile silos in the desert, according to an analysis of satellite photos, which researchers say signals a possible expansion of the country’s nuclear capabilities.
Analysts warned the expansion signified an “alarming development” but also urged caution against “worstcase thinking”, noting tension between major nuclear powers over disarmament.
The research, first reported by the Washington Post on Thursday, identified the construction of at least 119 silos, likely to hold intercontinental ballistic missiles, have been identified in the desert of Gansu province.
The researchers, from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, made the discovery through an analysis of satellite photos provided by commercial company, Planet.
Spread across more than 700 sq miles, the site near Yumen includes the construction of underground bunkers, which may function as launch centres, cable trenches, roads and a small military base, one of the researchers, the US nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, said.
Features of the layout mirrored existing nuclear ballistic missile launch sites in Inner Mongolia, suggesting China has built or is building at least 145 in total.
“We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a US first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defences,” Lewis told the Washington Post.
China is believed to have about 350 nuclear warheads, about 30 more than in 2020, and far fewer than the US or Russia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Amid an arms race and worsening relations with Washington, China and Russia are reluctant to reduce their arsenal without corresponding limits on the US. In April the head of US nuclear forces had warned of an “breathtaking expansion” of Chinese nuclear capabilities.
The number of silos does not necessarily correlate with the number of missiles, with Lewis suggesting it could be a “shell game” to partially disguise where missiles are kept and ensure other parties in a war would not know exactly where they were. He said the layout was similar to what the US designed when it made initial “shell game” plans in the 1970s.
“So while it might seem that 120 silos means 120 missiles, it could very easily be 12. We just don’t know. And even if China were to deploy only a handful of missiles, its forces could over time grow into the silos,” Lewis told Foreign Policy. “Yet whether the number is 12 or 120, this is an alarming development.”
After last month’s Nato meeting warned of a need to address China’s growing authoritarianism and military might, Beijing accused the bloc of “slander” and made specific mention of its nuclear arsenal.
China’s mission to the EU said the country had far fewer nuclear warheads than Nato members and had committed not to use or threaten their use against non-nuclear states.
It said China was committed to a defence policy that was “defensive in nature”, and its pursuit of military modernisation was justified and reasonable. In early June, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said the country adheres to a principle of not using nuclear weapons first.
James Acton, a co-director of the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, urged against “worst-case thinking” in light of the silo construction revelations.
“There are lots of reasons to question whether China is about to expand its nuclear arsenal this rapidly, although it is expanding it a bit,” Acton said, noting the similarity to the US’s 1970s shell game plan.
“Secondly, understand that to a large extent China’s nuclear modernisation programme may be motivated by concern about the US. China has been quite open that it worries the US might attack its nuclear forces preemptively in a conflict.”
John Culver, a retired CIA analyst on east Asian affairs, questioned the closeness of the constructed buildings. “Grouped so closely they situationally almost dare an adversary to think about counterforce attack,” he tweeted.