Western Bulldogs lead AFL’s fab five as topfour race narrows
And then there were five. After 16 rounds of competition, it is safe to say Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Geelong will fight it out for the double chance that goes with finishing in the top four. Moreover, assuming the Bulldogs’ 2016 premiership from seventh position is the exception that proves the rule, it is no stretch to conclude that this year’s flag will fall to one of these five clubs.
Just one game separates the quintet on the AFL ladder. But who is timing their run to the finals and who is showing signs of fatigue? We look at each club’s prospects with seven rounds to go in the regular season.
Western Bulldogs (currently 1st)Up and down since winning three on end in May, comfortably accounting for both WA teams but also losing to Melbourne and Geelong. The Dogs’ defeat of lowly North Melbourne on Sunday means they have now won consecutive games for the first time since round 10, and by virtue of Melbourne’s loss to the Giants now occupy top spot on percentage.
The Bulldogs have already beaten the Lions and the Power this year and look to have a comfortable enough run home, with only games against the Demons and Port likely to cause any difficulty. The Dogs will be sweating on the likes of Adam Treloar, Josh Dunkley, Ryan Gardner and Stefan Martin returning with gusto in time for the finals. If the Bulldogs manage to win at least five of their remaining seven outings, a top-two finish should be theirs. They might do even better than that. Predicted finish: Minor premiers Melbourne (2nd)The cracks are starting to appear. After winning their first nine games of the season, the Demons now have a mortal look about them. Though their response to the Adelaide defeat was emphatic, beating the Bulldogs and the Lions in subsequent rounds, they limped to the bye with a loss to Collingwood and don’t look to have resurfaced in much better nick.
Melbourne’s attack on the ball and the man, and the boldness of their ball movement, is down sharply from their peak output earlier this season, as evidenced by a laborious win over Essendon in round 15 and a loss to GWS on Saturday. Their run home looks tricky, with games against Port, the Bulldogs and Geelong sure to test their mettle. The Dees are still faring incredibly well on the injury front, which makes their present stuttering all the more concerning. An enforced absence or two in the run to the finals could spell trouble. Predicted finish: 4th
Brisbane Lions (3rd)The Lions might have started the season slowly, winning just one of their opening four fixtures, but with 10 victories in their past 11 they are arguably the form team of the AFL. The solitary reverse in that time – a 22-point loss to the Demons – will not be forgotten in a hurry, but wide-margin wins over Port, Geelong and even the Giants will give Brisbane confidence their best is more than good enough.
After a couple of seasons flirting with the upper reaches of the ladder, the Lions now look ready to take the next step and their list profile would suggest their time is nigh – in addition to a red-hot midfield and established stars at both ends of the ground, the emergence of Zac Bailey and the addition of Joe Daniher has added layers to the depth of quality on display.
Brisbane have the most charmed run home of the top five teams and should go close to winning each of their remaining seven fixtures, even if the Covid-19 situation robs them of some home games. This could be the year of the Lion.
Predicted finish: 2nd
Port Adelaide (4th)At a glance the Power look well placed to improve on their agonising 2020 preliminary final loss to Richmond and push for top honours this season. On closer inspection, however, it is hard to shake the suspicion that even if Port do make the top four, they will be making up the numbers. Put simply, the Power can’t be taken seriously in 2021 until they claim a credible scalp.
Thus far, each of Port’s 11 triumphs have come against teams presently sitting no higher than sixth on the ladder. Each time they have faced a contender they have failed, with losses to Brisbane (49 points), Western Bulldogs (19) and Geelong (21) putting their season into context. That is not to say the Power cannot remedy the situation, and they will get their chance with games against Melbourne and the Bulldogs in the closing rounds. But ideally Port want a top-two finish to lock away a home final in week one. With tricky away matches against St Kilda and the Giants also to come, that looks unlikely. Predicted finish: 5th
Geelong (5th)The Cats have left behind their indifferent early-season form, winning seven of their past eight since going down to Sydney in round seven, and look primed to secure the double chance. That sole blip, a 44point defeat by Brisbane in round 15, will be of obvious concern to Chris Scott and his coaching staff. But otherwise Geelong have fared well against the better teams recently, with victories over Port and the Bulldogs under their belt since returning from the bye.
Much will hinge on Geelong’s ability to secure home finals, if indeed the AFL will relent to staging playoff games at GMHBA Stadium. There is every reason to think the Cats will finish the season strongly, with a home game against Melbourne in round 23 their only fixture against a fellow top-five side.
But they will want their best players on the park in the run to the finals. One of their finest, Jeremy Cameron, is sidelined for up to a month and Geelong will be praying the ex-Giant’s hamstrings hold together during September. He could well be that important to Geelong’s hopes of going one better in 2021.
Predicted finish: 3rd