The Guardian view on relaxing Covid restrictions: the ‘big bang’ is too big a gamble
A universal experience has also proved a profoundly isolating one. Lockdown saved countless lives, but by sundering our bonds, it hit personal health, communities and the economy hard. As restrictions have relaxed, the gradual return to communal life has been welcome.
But it has only been made possible by a communal response to the pandemic with which this government remains fundamentally uncomfortable. It takes credit for the vaccination drive, but doesn’t want to carry the can for the aspects that people – notably Tory MPs – don’t like, such as restrictions. Its plan to axe most remaining controls on 19 July, laid out by Boris Johnson on Monday, relies on outsourcing responsibility – not even to employers or organisations, but primarily to individuals.
More or less all legal requirements will be scrapped, including for the wearing of masks, controls on how many people can gather inside and size limits for sports crowds – without additional precautions (such as vaccination certificates) being introduced. Nightclubs can reopen. Plans to replace quarantine requirements for fully vaccinated people who have visited amber-list countries are to be announced. Many people would like some relaxation. But the “big bang” is a huge gamble, as scientists have warned. The former insistence that these changes would be “irreversible” was noticeably absent.
The public has consistently proved more cautious than ministers. It may be more so when recalling that twothirds of the 128,000 Covid deaths came after we were first urged to “learn to live with the virus” in September. A chunk of the population is not fully vaccinated; another short delay would boost protection.
So much for data, not dates. Cases are rising exponentially in the UK, by 70% last week, to around 27,000 a day; the prime minister acknowledged that they could hit 50,000 by 19 July. The link between infections and hospitalisations and death has been weakened by vaccination – but not broken. Even those who have had both doses can still fall ill, and the fast-spreading Delta variant has been transmitted by people who were vaccinated. We do not know what level of deaths the government deems acceptable. Allowing community transmission to surge will have serious long-term health implications for some survivors, will increase strain on the NHS, and raises the risk of new variants, which could be more resistant to existing vaccines. The British Medical Association has warned against this all-or-nothing approach.
The decision to scrap the requirement for masks is particularly baffling. Unlike some restrictions, masks don’t cost jobs, or prevent us from seeing our loved ones. Those genuinely unable to wear them are already exempt; for the rest, it is a minor inconvenience. Israel, much better vaccinated than the UK, was forced to restore its mask mandate only days after dropping it, as cases rose. Scotland is wisely retaining masks when it sheds other rules; Wales says that it won’t be rushed into dropping further restrictions. Polling suggests most people support a continued requirement for masks in shops and on public transport, understanding that personal responsibility is of limited use in a pandemic. Masks primarily protect others; collectively, we can cut transmission and keep each other safe.
When the government tells people that they can do something – and when ministers say that they will do something – many people understandably interpret that as meaning that it is safe to do something. Too often they have been wrong, as with last summer’s “eat out to help out” scheme, or the chaos over rules at Christmas. The axing of the mask mandate, and the wholesale bonfire of rules, feels horribly familiar. This new gamble will ultimately make it harder to achieve what everyone wants: a true and lasting return to normal life. The government still has time to pull back. It should do so.