As Olympic athletics begins, the data suggests we are at the peak of human ability
When the Olympics’ athletics program begins on Friday, improved shoe technology means we get a chance to see some records fall that have been held for decades. And yet even with such technological improvements, data across many events suggests we are essentially at the peak of human ability.
A weird thing happened in 1989 – women stopped breaking world records in sprints and strength events:
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The main reasons of course were that in 1989 out-of-competition drug testing was introduced and the Eastern Bloc collapsed, putting an end to the East German’s and other nation’s doping programs.
But it also came at a time when the ceiling of peak performance was much closer than previously.
You are always in danger of looking foolish by saying we can’t run any faster – but the difference between pondering that now than in 1954, when people wondered if the four-minute mile was impossible, is that now the data suggests the peaks have been or are close to being reached.
Consider the metric mile of the 1,500m. The world record set in 1998 by Hicham El Guerrouj has now been held for longer than any other athlete over the distance:
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And while in the past 20 years only two athletes have come within two seconds of his time, his record is not that far below the 100-year trend as was Herb Elliott in 1958.
The difference, however, is that within a decade of Elliott’s record, tracks shifted from cinders to synthetic, shoe technology, diet and training methods began to significantly improve, while African nations also began to compete in large numbers.
Those changes don’t happen now. Some records remain untouchable regardless of technology.
Florence Griffith Joyner’s world record in the 100m 10.49 is a case in point – research done for the IAAF shows it was likely run with at least a 5mps tail wind rather than the “0mps” that was registered – and it sticks out as an anomaly among the best yearly times:
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As Andy Bull noted, there is also “plenty of circumstantial evidence” that Griffith Joyner cheated, but even if you dismiss those claims a look at other best annual times since 1970 shows how her next best time of 10.61 is certainly exceptional, but also happened when times look to have hit a plateau:
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This plateau has also occurred in men’s speed events.
When I was growing up, Bob Beamon’s 8.9m long jump world record set in the thin air of Mexico City looked unbreakable, and yet after 23 years in 1991 it was. Mike Powell has now held the record for seven years longer than Beamon and no one this century has come within 20cm:
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One thing is that, while consistent with the rules of the day, the track on whichPowell set his record on a track at the 1991 Tokyo World Championships was harder than the current laws allow.
But one other aspect is that Powell and Carl Lewis – who got to 8.87m – may have just been freaks of their time. And the times now are not ones that see the best athletes (especially in the US) do the long jump.
Consider Marquise Goodwin, who holds the American high school long jump record. He competed in the 2012 Olympics when he was 22 and then left the sport to play the NFL. The money in the NBA and the NFL sees athletes more likely to be funnelled towards those sports than the track.
But even if the best do athletics – is it actually possible for example to jump higher than the current 28-yearold world record of 2.45m?
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By the time Javier Sotomayor set his record, the plateau of heights being jumped looked to have been reached. The equal fourth highest jump this year of 2.33m by Australian Brandon Starc is just 1cm behind the 2.34m Tim Forsyth jumped in the 1992 Olympics to win bronze.
In other cases, particularly from the 1980s, doping may make records unattainable. I am not naïve – the women’s 400m world record held by the GDR’s Marita Koch, for example, has been called into question.Koch has always denied taking drugs and never failed a test, but records discovered after the fall of the Berlin Wall by Brigitte Berendonk and Werner Franke allegedly include lists of annual dosages of OralTurinabol administered to Koch and other GDR athletes.
Since 1986 only three people have come within a second of her time of 47.60s set in Canberra in 1985:
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But now perhaps the new carbonplated, thick-soled spikes that replicate the advances in distance running shoe technology could lead to these records being broken.
Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce set a PB of 10.63 this year in the 100m while wearing a pair of Nike Air Zoom Maxfly spikes.
Usain Bolt has called the new spikes “unfair”, but technology has always been part of running.
Carl Lewis’ shoes from the 1980s look antique compared with what Bolt wore, but no one suggests that makes Bolt’s times illegitimate.
As it is the performance of Bolt is testimony that we have plateaued but also that we should not assume individuals cannot ever go faster:
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There will always be the exceptional athletes – the once in a generation athlete like Bolt who breaks records – and technology for good (shoes and tracks and training) and ill (doping) has also always been a part of track and field.
New shoes might help some set new records, but given the doubts over so many records from the 1980s it would be much better to worry about whether records are being set due to shoes rather than drugs.