The Observer view on what Iran’s new president means for the Middle East
A hardline president has taken charge in Iran. An inexperienced government in Israel is threatening military action against Tehran. A lethal shadow war is being waged in the Gulf. Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, is firing missiles into Israel from chaotic Lebanon. Bitter words fly in London over hostage-taking. US fears grow, meanwhile, that the Vienna nuclear talks have failed. Deal or no deal, it’s suggested, Iran may soon be able to build an atomic weapon.
This is a perilous, darkly portentous moment in the Middle East and specifically for the multifaceted conflict between Iran and the west. Ebrahim Raisi, who was sworn in as president on Thursday after a rigged, boycotted election, offered scant ground for optimism. “Tyrannical” sanctions imposed by Donald Trump, which have ravaged the country since 2018, must be lifted, he said. But he offered no plan to achieve it and nothing in the way of concessions.
Raisi’s ascent marks a definitive triumph for the fiercely conservative, anti-western factions associated with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi’s predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, like Mohammad Khatami before him, fought a long, ultimately losing internal battle for rapprochement with the US and Europe. Now, hardliners control all the Islamic republic’s main institutions, including the military, judiciary and parliament.
The implications of this clean sweep are ominous. Backed by the ever more influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Raisi, ironically, now has the clout to cut a deal in Vienna that Rouhani lacked. He may do so. Iran’s economy is in dire straits. Inflation and shortages are wreaking havoc. Official figures show the poverty rate doubled over two years, to 30% in 2019. It may be even worse now. A limited agreement on sanctions relief could ease the public’s pain.
But Raisi and the ageing, hawkish Khamenei remain ardent nationalists who believe strongly, on ideological and religious grounds, in the virtues of self-reliance. They argue that, in future, Iran’s centrally directed econ