Fears of violence on Brazil’s streets as millions rally to back Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro supporters aren’t hard to find in Sinop, an agricultural boomtown in the Brazilian Amazon where nearly 80% of voters backed the country’s ultra-conservative leader in the 2018 election.
“He’s a president of the people,” said Marcos Watanabe, the head of the city’s conservative association, sporting a Tshirt stamped with Bolsonaro’s name.
Few, however, are as passionate as the president of Sinop’s farmers’ union, Ilson José Redivo, who has placed a billboard of his leader outside its headquarters with the slogan: “We believe in God and we value the family. We’re with Bolsonaro.”
“He’s trying to change Brazil,” said the 64-year-old corn and soya bean farmer who hosted the rightwing populist in Sinop last year at an event attended by members of the region’s powerful agribusiness elite.
Redivo is one of millions of Bolsonaro devotees expected to hit the streets on 7 September for one in a series of mass rallies that have jolted Brazilian politics and left many citizens fretting over the future of their country’s young democracy.
“It will be the largest demonstration Brazil has ever seen,” Redivo claimed on Friday as he prepared to make the 780mile journey to Brazil’s capital, Brasília, where one of the largest mobilisations will be held.
Redivo said at least 20 buses were setting off from the state capital, Cuiabá, as well as other towns and cities across the agricultural heartlands, where Bolsonaro’s dilution of environmental regulations and prodevelopment rhetoric have made him a hero to many.
Another giant rally will be held at the heart of Brazil’s economic capital, São Paulo.
For Redivo, the marches – timed to coincide with the anniversary of Brazil’s independence from Portugal, on 7 September 1822 – are about championing an embattled leader whose ratings have nosedived as a result of a coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 580,000 Brazilians and corruption allegations involving Bolsonaro’s family and government.
“I feel outrage about what they’re doing with the president of the republic,” Redivo said, denouncing the attacks on Bolsonaro by members of what he called Brazil’s “ruddy left”.
“It’s impossible to fathom how there are people denigrating the image of the very country they live in. These people aren’t even remotely patriotic or even in the slightest bit Brazilian,” the farmer fumed.
But the demonstrations have stoked anger and trepidation among Bolsonaro’s political foes, who fear there could be mayhem and violence as radicalised and potentially gun-wielding supporters, including from among the police, flood the streets.
Some worry that 7 September could turn out to be Brazil’s answer to 6 January, the day hardcore supporters of Donald Trump – Bolsonaro’s political idol – went on the rampage in Washington, leaving five dead. Others fear that Bolsonaro, a former soldier known for his admiration of authoritarian leaders, might even be plotting a self-coup, by which the democratically elected president tries to seize dictatorial powers.
More than 5,000 police officers will reportedly be deployed to protect congress amid fears that it could suffer the same fate as the US Capitol after Trump’s defeat. Leftist leaders have urged their followers to avoid clashes by not holding counter-protests, while the US embassy has told citizens to steer clear.
On Thursday, the chief justice of Brazil’s supreme court, Luiz Fux, said people should be aware of the “judicial consequences of their acts”, whatever their political leanings. “Freedom of expression does not entail violence and threats,” Fux warned.
Redivo said the protests targeted members of the political establishment and supreme court who he claimed were hampering Bolsonaro’s patriotic crusade to free the country from the grip of corrupt leftist plunderers.
“This is a movement of upstanding citizens,” he insisted, although federal police last month raided the Sinop home of another influential local figure – the president of the Brazilian Association of Soybean Growers – as part of an investigation into alleged attempts to incite violent anti-democratic acts.
Most observers, however, believe the rallies are designed to help Bolsonaro project a false sense of strength at what is his weakest moment since his presidency began in January 2019.
Polls show that more than 60% of Brazilians would not vote for Bolsonaro under any circumstances in next year’s election, with the leftwing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seemingly in pole position to beat him. Even in Amazon cities such as Sinop, where some of the president’s fiercest defenders are found, there are hints that support is slipping, including several Bolsonaro propaganda billboards that have been vandalised.
Graciele Marques dos Santos, the only leftwing member of Sinop’s 15seat city council, admitted that many farmers and evangelicals continued to back Bolsonaro. “They see him as a messenger of God,” she said.
But the Workers’ party (PT) politician believed disillusionment was growing, and saw the increasingly radical rhetoric of Bolsonarista politicians as proof they knew his presidency was in trouble.
“I don’t think he enjoys the same level of support he used to at all – and that explains this despair,” Dos Santos said, slamming Brazil’s “utterly authoritarian” president.
“You can attach any negative adjective you want to him. He’s awful. He has turned our country into an international disgrace,” she said.
Local television presenter Tony Lennon said that he felt affection for Bolsonaro but sensed the president was losing support as a result of inflation, rising fuel prices and a Covid crisis that had claimed many lives.
“It was a domino effect,” said Lennon, who thought that perhaps only 60% of Sinopenses now backed Bolsonaro compared with 77.38% in 2018.
Elsewhere, support has plunged more dramatically, with millions joining major anti-Bolsonaro protests since late May.
Thomas Traumann, a political commentator and former communications minister, suspected Bolsonaro now realised his chances of re-election were evaporating and had decided to go on the offensive.
“It’s intimidation,” Traumann said of the rallies. “It’s about showing that, ‘If I want to, I can stage a coup. I have the people on my side. I have the army on my side. I have the military police on my side. I have the people of God on my side. I have the people who produce on my side. We are the true Brazil and I don’t even have to hold elections if I don’t want to.’”
Maria Cristina Fernandes, a columnist from the Valor Econômico newspaper, said the demonstrations reflected Bolsonaro’s apparent alarm at the prospect of him or his sons facing jail as a result of investigations into their financial and political dealings, and Bolsonaro’s anti-scientific handling of Covid.
A congressional inquiry is investigating his pandemic response while fresh corruption allegations involving his ex-wife and two of his politician sons surfaced on Friday.
“Wherever you look, his sons are in shtuck,” said Fernandes, who thought the president was perhaps right to think his post-presidential future could lie behind bars.
Fernandes said it was impossible to predict how 7 September would play out but she was particularly concerned about the behaviour of armed Bolsonaro-supporting members of the military police and hardcore civilian backers whom the president has encouraged to buy guns.
“In the 2.5 years he’s been in power. he has relaxed gun laws. He has armed the civilian population – and these people are out there,” she said.
“I hope they’ll use their good sense and not take to the streets with guns. But this will depend on the president’s ability to control himself and not to incite an armed demonstration.”
There was scant sign of moderation from Bolsonaro this week as he declared: “If you want peace, get ready for war.”
Dos Santos said she felt apprehensive about bloodshed in the coming months. “I think we could see tragedies. People here feel so angry,” she said. “The head of our nation is someone who incites hatred and violence. It’s awful, it’s horrible.”
As he prepared to set off for Brasília, Redivo rejected the idea that rightwingers would sow chaos or storm the supreme court or congress.
“This will not happen. It is not our style – and it never has been. We’re taking to the streets to promote good, not evil,” he said, claiming he was part of “an orderly, civic movement”.
But Redivo did expect the protests to leave an indelible mark. “I believe this will be the greatest movement in Brazilian history,” he declared. “We are going there to defend our fatherland and our flag.”
You can attach any negative adjective you want. He’s awful. He has turned our country into an international disgrace
Councillor Graciele Marques dos Santos