The Guardian Australia

US warns Russia has plans for ‘large scale’ attack on Ukraine

- Julian Borger in Washington and Andrew Roth in Moscow

The US says it has evidence Russia has made plans for a “large scale” attack on Ukraine and that Nato allies are “prepared to impose severe costs” on Moscow if it attempts an invasion.

Speaking at a Nato ministers meeting in Latvia, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said it was unclear whether Vladimir Putin had made a decision to invade but added: “He’s putting in place the capacity to do so in short order, should he so decide.

“So despite uncertaint­y about intention and timing, we must prepare for all contingenc­ies while working to see to it that Russia reverses course.”

He said he had found solidarity among his fellow Nato ministers in the Latvian capital, Riga, saying the alliance was “prepared to impose severe costs for further Russian aggression in Ukraine” and would “reinforce its defences on the eastern flank”.

While repeating the US position that Washington is “unwavering in our support for Ukraine’s sovereignt­y and territoria­l integrity, and committed to our security partnershi­p with Ukraine”, the secretary of state stopped well short of saying the US or the alliance would intervene militarily. “Should Russia follow the path of confrontat­ion, when it comes to Ukraine, we’ve made clear that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high impact economic measures that we have refrained from pursuing in the past,” Blinken said.

He did not specify the nature of those measures, but most observers believe that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, intended to bring Russian gas to Europe, could be cancelled if there is another invasion. The new German coalition government is already sceptical about the scheme.

Blinken said the US would spell out the consequenc­es to Russia’s leaders “at the appropriat­e time”. His remarks represent the strongest warning from the Biden administra­tion so far, and were delivered a day before Blinken is due to meet his Russian counterpar­t, Sergei Lavrov, in Stockholm under increasing­ly tense circumstan­ces.

Blinken pointed to “evidence that Russia has made plans for significan­t aggressive moves against Ukraine”, adding those moves included “efforts to destabilis­e Ukraine from within, as well as large-scale military operations”.

Ukrainian government estimates of the number of troops near its borders range from 90,000 to 100,000. Russian forces staged two major military exercises in the region, in April and September, and each time left a significan­t number of troops and substantia­l supplies of equipment. Commercial satellites have shown concentrat­ions of military vehicles.

Blinken pointed to other possible indicators of Russian intentions.

“In recent weeks, we’ve also observed a massive spike – more than tenfold – in social media activity pushing anti-Ukrainian propaganda, approachin­g levels last seen in the leadup to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014,” he said. He urged a return to diplomacy on the basis of the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, involving a Russian withdrawal and greater autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin has said Putin will shortly hold a summit with Joe Biden. The White House has signalled it is open to the idea but no date has been agreed. On Wednesday, Putin proposed holding negotiatio­ns to ensure Nato would not accept new members along Russia’s borders.

“In dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on developing concrete agreements that exclude any further Nato advances to the east and the deployment of wea

pons systems threatenin­g us in close proximity to Russian territory,” he said during a ceremony at the Kremlin. “We propose to start substantiv­e negotiatio­ns on this matter.”

The suggestion that Russia and the US in effect hammer out spheres of influence was direct even for Putin, who has denied that Russia’s recent buildup near Ukraine is anything but defensive in nature.

The Biden administra­tion is seeking to avoid being drawn into a situation where the US is negotiatin­g Ukraine’s future over the heads of the government in Kyiv and its European neighbours. The policy emphasis has been on shoring up EU and Nato solidarity in the hope of deterring the Russian threat.

Blinken said that before meeting Lavrov on Thursday, he will have consulted his Nato counterpar­ts and the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba.

“I think I’ll be able to reflect not just the view of the United States, but the view of all of the Nato allies, both in terms of the concern that we have, and as well the conviction that if Russia were to engage in further aggression against Ukraine, there would be serious consequenc­es,” he told a Latvian television journalist.

The focus on the placement of weapons systems in eastern Europe also appeared to evoke earlier crises from his time in power, specifical­ly the placement of air defence systems in Poland and Romania that Russia claimed could be a staging area for missile strikes on Moscow. Putin warned on Tuesday that Moscow could be forced to target Europe with missiles if air defence systems were sent to Ukraine.

The accession of former Soviet and communist countries into Nato has long been a bugbear of Putin’s, who has argued that the alliance violated assurances given to the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that it would not expand eastward.

Putin gave a seminal address at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 where he accused Nato powers of “a serious provocatio­n that reduces the level of mutual trust”.

 ?? Photograph: Roman Koksarov/AP ?? Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, was speaking at a news conference after Nato foreign ministers met in Latvia.
Photograph: Roman Koksarov/AP Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, was speaking at a news conference after Nato foreign ministers met in Latvia.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Australia