Champions League last 16: tie-by-tie analysis and verdicts after redraw
RB Salzburg v Bayern Munich
Bayern, as ever, have been dominant in the Bundesliga and they romped through the group stage winning six out of six, scoring 22 and conceding only three. Under Julian Nagelsmann they play with as high a line as they did under Hansi Flick, and Robert Lewandowski remains as prolific as ever. If there are doubts, they are only over two things: Bayern’s squad is not as deep as those of many of their rivals, making them susceptible to injuries, and top-class sides may be able to exploit that high line. Salzburg have in the past caused problems against other hard-pressing teams, notably against Liverpool two seasons ago when they lost 4-3 at Anfield and drew 2-2 in Austria, but they have been a little less open and fluent under Matthias Jaissle than they were under Jesse Marsch and took only one away point in the group. Predicted winner Bayern
Sporting v Manchester City
The greatest opponent for Manchester City in Europe often seems to be themselves, or at least Pep Guardiola’s tendency to overcomplicate matters against teams whose counterattacking threat alarms him. It’s probably still too early in the competition for that to apply and, after a tricky group in which they finished above Paris Saint-Germain and RB Leipzig, Sporting represent a relatively kind opponent. Two group defeats don’t tell the full story: but for the absence of a consistent goal threat, City could easily have won away to PSG, and the defeat at Leipzig came after top spot had been secured. Sporting made it through despite losing half their six group games and their openness should suit City’s patient buildup. Kyle Walker’s suspension for at least the first leg could be exploited by Sporting’s left side where the wing-back Matheus Reis links with one of the inside-forwards.
Predicted winner Manchester City Benfica v Ajax
Ajax have been superb in Europe this season (although they trail PSV by a point in the Eredivisie), winning six out of six. Sébastien Haller is in remarkable goalscoring form, the Edson Álvarez and Ryan Gravenberch pairing is impressing at the back of midfield and Dusan Tadic still knits everything together. Only Bayern scored more than their 20 group goals, but this is a testing tie, and one that suggests that, despite the rigid stratification of the modern game, there is still life beyond the big five leagues. Under Jorge Jesus, Benfica have looked a serious European force again, even if they are four points off the top domestically. They kept four clean sheets in the group stage, beat Barcelona comprehensively at home and were good enough on the break to score twice away to Bayern. Predicted winner Ajax
Chelsea v Lille
Chelsea’s punishment for the sloppy draw at Zenit that cost them top spot in the group could have been a lot more severe (and fortune smiled on them twice given they got the same draw in both the invalid draw and the later one). Although Lille have improved recently, unbeaten in nine as Jocelyn Gourvennec begins to impose his style after replacing Christophe Galtier in the summer, they remain 11th in Ligue 1 and the squad is nothing like as strong as the one that beat PSG to the French title last summer. They can, as they showed by winning the vital final group game against Wolfsburg, sit deep and counter effectively, but so long as Chelsea get a couple of midfielders back and can rediscover the defensive solidity that has characterised them since Thomas Tuchel took over the reigning champions should prevail to reach the last eight.
Predicted winner Chelsea
Atlético Madrid v Manchester United Both sides must be a little baffled as to how they reached this stage. Atlético did not play well at all in the group, failing to score in three games and making it past Porto at the last only because some muscle memory of how to spite their way to victory kicked in. To an extent that has perhaps always been the Diego Simeone way but even by his standards progress was scratchy. United, meanwhile, twice burgled wins against Villarreal and took four points from two games against Atalanta despite being outplayed for long spells. At some point in Europe the late Cristiano Ronaldo winners will dry up, but perhaps under Ralf Rangnick they will be less in need of them. United have the better squad; the question is whether Rangnick can organise them and they can play cleverly enough to make that count.
Predicted winner Manchester United Villarreal v Juventus
For Juventus, this perhaps is recompense for drawing the defending champions, Chelsea, in the first round. Having topped a group that also included Zenit and Malmö, they now face the team 13th in La Liga, which is as kind as draws get at this stage. With four Europa League titles Unai Emery is a master of knockout competitions (as he showed by masterminding the 3-2 win over Atalanta in the final group game in what was effectively a shootout for qualification) and Juve, in present form, may be vulnerable. Three years of very strange transfer dealings will take time to put right, even after the return of Max Allegri. A raft of attacking injuries for Juve should have cleared up by February and they’re likely to be higher than sixth in the table.
Predicted winner Juventus Internazionale v Liverpool
For fans of a certain generation, a meeting of Inter and Liverpool inevitably stimulates memories of the hugely controversial European Cup semi-final in 1965. Having won 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool lost 3-0 at San Siro, and always insisted that one goal was scored straight from an indirect freekick and another after the ball had been nicked from the keeper Tommy Lawrence as he tried to drop-kick it. Liverpool won both legs in their only other meeting, the last 16 in 2007-08. Inter, after a wobbly start as they reacted to the loss of Antonio Conte and Romelu Lukaku last summer, have improved, a run of five straight league wins taking them top of Serie A. Edin Dzeko is 35 but he has looked just as effective in tandem with Lautaro Martínez as Lukaku did. But Liverpool, despite some concerns over their defence, won six out of six in the group stage. Predicted winner Liverpool
PSG v Real Madrid
The first draw offered up PSG v Manchester United, Lionel Messi v Cristiano Ronaldo, and while that possibility may have vanished, PSG against Real Madrid is a decent replacement (although Madrid, having drawn Benfica before the glitch on the draw that forced its annulment, are not surprisingly furious). Having lost at home to Sheriff in the second game of the group stage, they have improved significantly and are on a run of 10 straight wins in all competitions, although there remains a sense that, for all the quality of Karim Benzema and the blossoming of Vinícius Júnior, they are over-reliant on an ageing midfield. PSG, meanwhile, have found the addition of Messi has unbalanced the squad even further, effectively forcing them into playing a 7-0-3 against Manchester City. Both sides are miles clear domestically; neither, probably as a consequence, look at all convincing in Europe.
Predicted winner PSG