Italians fear return of instability if Mario Draghi quits to become president
Italians have been enjoying an unusual period of political harmony – Mario Draghi, the prime minister, brought decisive, competent leadership in the midst of the pandemic, and the economy is growing fast. But that could be thrown into jeopardy when parliament elects a new president in January.
An opaque ritual described as being akin to the appointment of a new pope, the topic is dominating the political debate as the outcome could leave Italy with a predicament at a critical juncture: should Draghi, the former European Central Bank chief credited with restoring stability and confidence in the country, remain prime minister, or become president?
There are no official candidates in Italy’s presidential elections. Instead, lawmakers cast secret ballots for the seven-year mandate – they can vote for anyone, so long as they are an Italian citizen and aged 50 or over. Names that have cropped up in previous elections have included footballer Francesco Totti, actor Sophia Loren, and even porn star Rocco Siffredi. Voting can drag on for several rounds before a winner emerges.
Draghi has been regularly floated as the frontrunner to succeed Sergio Mattarella, who steps down as head of state on 3 February. The 74-yearold hinted last week that he might be readying for the role. At his end-ofyear press conference, he responded to questions about his future, saying: “My personal destiny is of no importance. I have no particular ambitions. I am, if you like, a grandfather in the service of the institutions.”
The only person who is explicitly pursuing the role, according to the Italian media, is the scandal-tainted former prime minister and leader of Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi.
“It’s extremely unlikely that he’ll get elected but we shouldn’t rule it out,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the London-based research company, Teneo. “If there is one person who has unparalleled vote-buying skills, it’s Berlusconi.”
Italy’s president is largely a ceremonial role, albeit with the power to resolve political crises, pick prime ministers and call early elections. Mattarella was forced to step in several times to resolve crises, including calling on Draghi to form a unity government in February after the administration led by Giuseppe Conte collapsed.
The timing of the election is delicate. Draghi is considered a safe pair of hands but a move to the presidential palace would bring his government to an early end, undermining efforts to enact the reforms needed to secure instalments from the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund, of which Italy is the biggest beneficiary.
“It’s the first time that this election has been economically relevant,” said Piccoli. “The country lost 10% of GDP because of the pandemic, and now, with Draghi, there is this new confidence… the question is whether this can last beyond the presidential election.” In the worst-case scenario, Draghi’s promotion could bring the general election forward by a year. If early elections are held, polls consistently indicate that a coalition of the farright parties, the League and Brothers of Italy, and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, could win.
Voting is expected to begin in the third week of January, but only on three occasions has a new president emerged in the first round. “There will be back-door deals, lots of posturing and random names mentioned every other day,” said Piccoli. “But, historically, all the names mentioned in the leadup to the vote are there to get burnt. I would be surprised if anyone mentioned so far is the real deal, with the exception of Draghi.”
Other names bandied about in the media include the current justice minister Marta Cartabia, the former prime minister Romano Prodi, another former prime minister and current European commissioner for the economy, Paolo Gentiloni, and Gianni Letta, a long-time adviser to Berlusconi.
If Draghi does stand, he might bide his time until the second or third round. “Even for someone like Draghi it’s not a given that he can get elected in the first round, and so he wouldn’t want to undermine his standing by putting himself up for the job too early,” said Piccoli.