What will happen in Australian football in 2022?
Socceroos
Best case scenario:A packed AAMI Park lifts Australia’s men to a thumping win over Vietnam in January and kick-starts a run that, combined with Japan collapsing, and an already-qualified Saudi Arabia putting their cue in the rack, culminates in automatic qualification for the Qatar 2022 World Cup. At that tournament, a favourable draw allows a unit led by a new generation of stars in Daniel Arzani, Harry Souttar, Ajdin Hrustic, Denis Genreau, Riley McGree, and Nathaniel Atkinson to win their first World Cup game since 2010 and remain in the mix to progress to the knockout stages heading into the final minutes of group action.
Worst case scenario:The Socceroos’ lean run of form continues and disastrous defeats to Oman, Japan and Saudi Arabia in World Cup qualification see them fall to fourth in their qualification group and miss out on the biggest stage for the first time since 2002. Peter Cklamovski, Mark Rudan, and Hervé Renard all reject Football Australia’s offer to replace Graham Arnold, leading the desperate federation to appoint Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as the new coach. and neglect to perform a full review of the national team programs.
What will probably happen:Japan hold on to second place in Group B, forcing Australia into a playoff with the third-place finisher in Group A and then a one-game intercontinental playoff against fifth-placed CONMEBOL finisher Chile. Graham Arnold’s legacy as Socceroos boss becomes intrinsically tied to that result.
Matildas
Best case scenario:Tony Gustavsson’s experimentation bears fruit as the Matildas romp to an Asian Cup win in January. Combined with an influx of standout ALW players, Australia show demonstrable signs of growth in subsequent friendlies against some of the world’s best. The Matildas are now a major contender to lift the World Cup on home soil in 2023, Gustavsson feels comfortable enough with his depth to rest key contributors such as Sam Kerr and Ellie Carpenter.
Worst case scenario:The Matildas are stunned by South Korea in the quarterfinals of the Asian Cup and their defensive and midfield issues show little sign of improvement in friendlies against the world’s best throughout the rest of the year. Frustrated, Gustavsson resigns from his post and again takes up a position as an assistant with the United States Women’s National Team, with Football Australia pursuing Phil Neville as his replacement.
What will probably happen:Flashes of a soft underbelly remain stubbornly persistent despite the Matildas setting up a heavyweight meeting with Japan in the Asian Cup final and riding an emotional wave to one of their trademark big-game performances. The team shows some signs of improvement in later friendlies as the standouts from Gustavsson’s early experimentation establish themselves and senior figures are welcomed back to the side. But vexing questions still remain heading into 2023.
A-League Men
Best case scenario:Battling player absences due to Covid, ALM coaches are forced to rely on younger players, and their exuberance inspires the league to shake off its conservatism and embrace an entertaining brand of football. Off the pitch, Western United commences construction of its stadium, Macarthur FC works with stakeholders to lower ticket prices and get more fans through the gate, Western Sydney Wanderers finally start playing like the big team they say they are, and Daniel Sturridge turns out for a full 90 minutes for Perth Glory.
Worst case scenario:Rising Covid cases force the league into a twoweek hiatus that promptly becomes a one-month, then a two-month, and then ultimately a three-month suspension in play. When play does resume, a significant number of the higher profile names have fled overseas and coaches, as a result, adopt even more pragmatic tactics. The games themselves are poorly attended, lacking in spectacle, and lost in a sea of AFL and NRL coverage. Elsewhere, Western United announce plans to play out of Gippsland in 2022-23, Macarthur FC reveal a new ultra-mega platinum ticket package, Western Sydney Wanderers appoint Paolo Di Canio as coach only for him to quit after two weeks, and Daniel Sturridge drops a diss track on the A-Leagues after returning to Britain. What will probably happen:ALM continues to battle onward in the face of rising Covid cases, with the gulf widening between the better resourced clubs and the rest. With the exception of the Newcastle Jets, teams continue to remain pragmatic in approach in the face of these challenges but ratings-hungry league officials are buoyed when City and Victory set up a grand final Melbourne derby for the first time since South Melbourne faced Carlton in the NSL.
A-League Women
Best case scenario:Buoyed by the Matildas lifting the Asian Cup with a number of its stars playing key roles, and excitement building over the 2023 Women’s World Cup, ALW continues to establish itself in the public consciousness and increasingly challenges for the mantle of the highest quality women’s league in Australian sport. Caught up in this anticipation, and the prospect of winning the first ever Club Championship, fans of ALM sides increasingly flock to watch their club’s women’s team compete and several set attendance records by the end of the season. Encouraged by these signs of progress and bolstered by their investment from Silver Lake, the Australian Professional Leagues reveal a roadmap to a full home and away season and year-round professionalism on the eve of the Grand Final, as well as plans for each club to create comprehensive youth development programs.
Worst case scenario:With Covid showing no signs of abating, ALW is forced into a long hiatus that, due to its players not being full-time professionals, results in a number stepping away from the game in order to support themselves and their families. When the league does resume, Western Australia’s continuing border restrictions result in Perth Glory withdrawing for the remainder of the campaign. The league announces that in the wake of this uncertainty that Western United and Central Coast Mariners entry into the competition will be delayed, which weeks later is followed by the news that the Brisbane Lions have convinced Mary Fowler to switch codes and play AFLW.
What will probably happen:ALW soldiers on and is able to complete the season in the face of Omicron-shaped headwinds, even if the pandemic prevents the league from experiencing the growth that would have been hoped heading into the season. Nonetheless, in the form of players such as City’s Holly McNamara, new young stars continue to emerge on the road to 2023. Sydney FC finally get the monkey off their back, defeating City in the Grand Final to become champions.
National Second Division
Best case scenario:Football Australia announces the launch of a ten-team, fully home-and-away national second division in 2023 that will expand to 16 teams in the following years by promoting the best-performing sides in the National Premier Leagues that meet strict financial and infrastructural requirements. Full promotion and relegation with the tiers below are revealed to be commencing when the 16 team mark is reached.
Worst case scenario:Football Australia announces the launch of a conference-based national second division in 2023 which will feature NPL champions from each state, new franchises and a minimum number of ALM youth sides in a Champions League format – eliminating the possibility of promotion and relegation with the lower NPL tiers. Disgusted, a number of NPL clubs break away from Football Australia and attempt to establish their own rebel competition but, without the logistical support of the national federation, it quickly collapses – taking a number of Australia’s most historic clubs with it.
What will probably happen:Football Australia announces a national second division will launch in 2023. Everyone agrees that it’s an important step forward for the Australian game but nobody is left happy because, depending on who you talk to, it has gone too far and will inevitably collapse / hasn’t gone far enough and will inevitably collapse.
Women’s World Cup 2023
Best case scenario:In the wake of the Matildas becoming champions of Asia once again, the 2023 Women’s World Cup becomes an unlikely vote-winner in the 2022 federal election with both sides of politics making commitments to pour significant money into the growth and support of elite and grassroots football across Australia. Riding a wave of momentum, excitement for the coming World Cup leads to a surge in participation from both girls and boys across the nation with tickets for all the tournament’s games becoming some of the most eagerly sought after in Australian sporting history.
Worst case scenario:Taking advantage of the Matildas’ continued sputtering form and an undermanned Football Australia, rival sporting codes successfully move to suck the oxygen out of the room, marginalise the buildup to 2023 and lobby for government funding to be disproportionately directed towards supporting their own causes. A new variant of Covid emerges, casting doubts on the ability of Australia and New Zealand to welcome fans from all around the world to celebrate the marquee event without onerous quarantine requirements.
What will probably happen:At least three Matildas friendlies against highprofile opposition are played to record crowds across Australia. Grassroots, community, and NPL competitions get a full season in after two disrupted years. And the successful addition of Western and Central Coast to the ALW continues to give the women’s game in Australia some level of momentum. This, combined with favourable coverage from mainstream media (in spite of any wobbles in the Matildas’ form)
leads to steady growth in hype for 2023, with ticket sales anticipated to be very
strong when they go on sale.