The Guardian view on Rishi Sunak: profits in the City, austerity in the country
It is a sign of democratic progress that Britain’s next prime minister will be of Indian heritage. The Conservative party is not the natural home for many of the country’s non-white voters. Yet so many Tory MPs wanted Rishi Sunak to be their leader that he was elected unopposed. Mr Sunak will be the first prime minister of colour and the first Hindu in Downing Street. His elevation during Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, will be a source of pride for many of his coreligionists – and for Britain’s political system.
The Tories have now had three female prime ministers, four non-white chancellors and Mr Sunak as prime minister. The Conservative party can with good reason claim that identity is not a bar to the highest office in the land. Labour cannot say the same. In politics, symbols are important. But images themselves are powerless. Mr Sunak, the country’s youngest prime minister in modern times, ascended to the top job without saying how he would deal with a looming recession and rocketing inflation.
The new prime minister is the richest man in parliament. Despite having no popular mandate, he did little to reassure people who are worried sick about rising costs or lengthening NHS waits. The emergency is real. Yet Mr Sunak seems intent on turning off household support for energy bills next April. He plainly thinks that meeting an arbitrary target of reducing national debt is more important than saving people from penury. Without fiscal expansion and the energy price guarantee, inflation will be higher and the recession deeper. Interest rates are likely to rise. Analysts at Morgan Stanley say borrowing costs for homes could hit 6%, which – along with higher
utility bills – would see up to 40% of households struggle to pay their mortgage.
Mr Sunak is a smart politician in what has been called the stupid party. His wonkish delivery does little to excite fellow Conservatives. In the summer, Tory members preferred Liz Truss’s trickle-down economics to his unflashy plans. Yet Mr Sunak looked attractive after Trussonomics blew up on the launch pad before it took off. The parliamentary party became ungovernable with Ms Truss as leader. Mr Sunak is lucky, as he is able now to blame Ms Truss for the pain that the country will endure.
Perhaps it is Mr Sunak’s background as a hedge fund manager rather than his race that explains his politics. The big winners from his arrival in office will be the owners of UK government bonds. The yield on 30-year gilts is now back to roughly where it was before the Truss government’s mini-budget. While the City profits, voters will pay through austerity.
The next Tory prime minister has a mountain to climb. Polling for the rightwing thinktank Onward shows that Labour is leading the Tories on every issue facing the country other than defence and Brexit. The bad news for Mr Sunak, a fiscal conservative, is that just one in six voters have economically rightwing values. More prefer equality over growth. Climbing divulges hidden truths about the climber. Mr Sunak could emulate the former Tory prime minister Benjamin Disraeli, who was born Jewish, with a promise to heal social divides. Without such a commitment and policies to back it up, Mr Sunak’s premiership is likely to be short and messy. Britain cannot afford another prime minister elected by Tory MPs or party members. The country’s next leader must be chosen through the ballot box.