Political uncertainty in Croatia as ruling party wins most seats but no majority
Croatia is heading for an extended period of political uncertainty after the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) emerged victorious in the parliamentary election, but with fewer seats than before and without a majority.
Led by Andrej Plenković, who has served two terms as prime minister, HDZ won 61 seats in the 151-seat assembly with the votes from 99.8% of polling stations counted, the state electoral commission said on Thursday, down from 66 seats in the previous parliament.
A coalition headed by the opposition Social Democratic party (SDP) of president Zoran Milanović finished second with 42 seats, while the rightwing Homeland Movement came in third with 14, potentially handing it the role of kingmaker.
Homeland has yet to say whether it would be prepared to join a right-leaning or a left-leaning bloc, but its leader, Ivan Penava, said he hoped the party would “tailor the fate of Croatia in the days ahead”.
With the ultra-liberal Most on 11 seats and the green-left Možemo on 10, both leading parties said after the vote they intended to start talks with potential allies aimed at putting together some form of majority administration.
Plenković said late on Wednesday: “HDZ won parliamentary election for the third consecutive time. As of tomorrow, we will move towards securing the parliamentary majority in order to be able to form the government.”
The SDP leader, Peđa Grbin, said while the party had hoped for a better result, it had not given up. “It is not over,” he said. “Days, weeks and perhaps months of talks are ahead of us and they will result in the change that will make Croatia a better place.”
Mario Bikarski, an analyst at the risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said: “Regardless of the final distribution of seats, it is likely the parliament will be more fragmented and coalition negotiations will drag on for longer.”
A minority government, led by HDZ or SDP would be “even more unstable and unlikely to last its full term”, Bikarski told Reuters.
Možemo called on parties “from the left to the right who have said over four years that their main goal is to destroy the corrupt” government to join forces and “oust the HDZ from power”, adding: “That goal is still achievable.”
The pro-European Plenković, who has been prime minister since 2016, had appeared comfortably assured of a third consecutive term in office until Milanović, an outspoken populist who opposes EU aid to Ukraine, announced a surprise challenge early last month.
The president’s decision shocked the country, sparked a bitter war of words between the two longstanding rivals and turned a predictable race into a far more close-run affair.
Croatia’s top court barred Milanović from running, ruling that party-political activity was incompatible with his role as president, but he continued campaigning and pledged to step down to become head of government if the SDP won.
HDZ has largely dominated Croatia’s politics since the country’s independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, overseeing its accession to the EU and the eurozone, but recent corruption scandals have severely dented the party’s support.