Touch of Magic tipped

Guru Crispe shares his expert opinion ahead of The Everest

VEGA Magic can overcome a wide draw and hold off Chautauqua and English in a thrilling finish to the inaugural $10 million The TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick today.

This is the prediction of form guru Gary Crispe, who believes there will be less than two lengths separating the first eight over the line in the big race.

Crispe said The Everest had attracted the best sprinters in training and it would take a Timeform rating of between 125 and 127 to win.

The question then is: who is set to reach that mark in the world’s richest turf race today?

Crispe believes it will be Vega Magic, one of three runners for Lindsay Park trainers David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig.

The former Perth galloper has been unbeaten since joining the Hayes-Dabernig stable and Crispe said he “put the writing on the wall” when he won the Group 1 Memsie Stakes last start, returning a Timeform rating of 126.

“At his first run for Lindsay Park, Vega Magic won the Group 1 Goodwood, returning a Timeform rating of 118, but this preparation he seems to have gone to a new level again,” Crispe said.

“His Memsie Stakes effort when he rated 126 was a serious shot fired this early in the season – the mark having only been matched or bettered by Weekend Hussler (126) and So You Think (128) in the recent history of that race.

“Further highlighting the significance of the mark, there are only two horses currently in training with a higher rating to their name – Winx (134) and Chautauqua (127).”

Vega Magic hasn’t raced for over a month and has to drop back to 1200m for The Everest but Crispe said this wouldn’t trouble the talented chestnut.

“The wide draw may appear a hindrance but I think he can settle just off the speed and surge late,” he said.

“The only box Vega Magic has not ticked is the righthanded way of going, but if he is able to replicate what he produced in the Memsie he is sure to be the horse to beat.”

Chautauqua has been unplaced in two runs this spring with suggestions the champ is struggling to find form – a theory Crispe has summarily dismissed. He said Chautauqua’s efforts in The Shorts and the Premiere Stakes were very good with his undoing brought about by a “less than ferocious” early tempo in both races.

It will be a different story today with the likelihood The Everest will be a high-pressure race, run at a fast tempo from the start, giving the backmarkers their opportunity.

Crispe also pointed out that Chautauqua has consistently produced his best efforts thirdup from a spell.

“Chautauqua’s career-best performances have come when a fast tempo has been set – that is the first half of the race is run faster than the second half,” he said. “His sustained speed allows him to work home over the top of his rivals as while they are slowing down he appears to be flying late, when in truth he isn’t going any faster, just sustaining speed.

“Then there is his third-up – it is quite spectacular.

“In his last four preparations that have gone three starts or more, he has won three times over 1200m.

“In his three 1200m wins achieved third up, Chautauqua has recorded a peak Timeform rating each time.

“The prospect of some rain will also assist his chances and a repetition of his 127 Time- form master rating makes him the hardest to beat.”

Crispe said English showed with her narrow loss to In Her Time in the Premiere Stakes last start that she was right on track for The Everest.

“English returned a faster last 600m (32.37 seconds) than Chautauqua and appeared to just peak on her run late – but still managed to record the second-fastest last 200m of the race,” he said.

“From the wide draw she is expected to be ridden cold, but will appreciate the fast tempo and her career peak was achieved third up last preparation in the TJ Smith Stakes over the Randwick 1200m.

“A return to that level of form sees her as a major player in the big dance.”

Crispe felt Clearly Innocent was the query runner and one of the few horses in the race with scope for more to give.

“Clearly Innocent ran to a new career Timeform peak rating of 121 during the Brisbane carnival, then resumed in the Premiere Stakes behind In Her Time, finishing an eyecatching third when he didn’t have a lot of room late,” he said. “This horse possesses a great record second up and will relish any rain about.”