Possible scenarios in nation’s political drama

JOYCE RESIGNS

THE speculation has intensified in recent days that Mr Joyce will not last amid calls that, at the very least, he should fall on his sword. There is now speculation Mr Joyce is facing new bombshells as early as next week.

THE LIKELIHOOD: Extremely unlikely. Mr Turnbull cannot force Mr Joyce to resign because only the Nationals can elect the party’s leader. But more to the point, Mr Joyce does not believe he should resign based on a personal matter.

JOYCE SPLITS COALITION BUT OFFERS SUPPLY

The PM enjoys his position because of the National Party. Ask any National and they will say Mr Turnbull owes them.

THE LIKELIHOOD: Unlikely, but don’t poke the bear. Mr Turnbull and Mr Joyce know they are stronger together.

JOYCE RENEGOTIATES COALITION AGREEMENT

BARNABY Joyce yesterday returned fire on the Prime Minister, and many options are on the table. The Nationals have been slightly emasculated under the Turnbull Government. Mr Joyce now feels like he is in a position of power to regain some ground.

THE LIKELIHOOD: Possible. Mr Joyce is already in a fight with the PM and there’s no better time to raise other issues he is irritated about when there’s personal and public hurt. Mr Joyce has been sandbagged by his team and has fire in his belly.

KISS AND MAKE UP

Some senior members on both sides are publicly and privately urging each other to sit down in a room and talk it out.

THE LIKELIHOOD: The most likely outcome. Mr Turnbull and Mr Joyce are practical.