Early storm warning Alarm at heavy weather off Fiji

THE formation of a category 2 tropical cyclone off Fiji has meteorologists scratching their heads and raised the issue of whether the early arrival of the system spells bad news for Far North Queensland ahead of the 2018-19 cyclone season.

If the Fiji cyclone crosses into Australian waters it would be the second cyclone in history to form in September and the only one in eastern Australia so early in the season.

Meteorologist Lauren Pattie said the system, dubbed Liua by the Fiji Meteorology Service, was certainly an oddity but was not necessarily a sign of a bad cyclone season for Far North Queensland in 2018-19.

“It is not an indicator. Large-scale factors, like El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are factors that affect tropical weather,” she said.

Cyclone season normally lasts from November to April but storms are more likely later in the season, Ms Pattie said.

The likelihood of an El Nino pattern developing in the coming months is 50 per cent, which is double the normal chance.

“El Nino conditions increase the possibility of seeing a tropical cyclone but it is not the only factor that influences the chance of future cyclones developing,” she said.

Cooler than normal waters in the eastern Indian Ocean and model outlooks indicate an increased likelihood of a positive IOD developing.

WeatherWatch meteorol- ogist Anthony Cornelius shared the development on social media on Thursday.

“Tropical Cyclone Liua develops well east of Australia. Yes you read right, it’s September and there’s a tropical cyclone,” Mr Cornelius said.

“It’s still outside of Australia’s area of responsibility and has been named by the Fiji Met service.

“Nonetheless, it’s amazing and exceptionally rare to see a named tropical cyclone so early in the season.”

Mr Cornelius said in meteorological terms the activity in the Coral Sea was known as an “atmospheric accident”, a term that describes an event that is never meant to happen.

“It more of a case of a series of unusual set of circumstances that come together to create this event,” he said.

With the sea surface tem- peratures tilting slightly toward an El Nino weather pattern, there is the chance a full El Nino pattern could develop this season, Mr Cornelius said.

“Normally with El Nino the tropical cyclone season is a little bit quieter,” he said. “So I guess it highlights just how unusual this situation is.”

The BOM yesterday issued an out-of-season Tropical Cyclone Outlook.

The storm was expected to turn to the west-southwest and the system was expected to weaken later yesterday or today.

Tropical Cyclone Liua poses no threat to the Australian coast.

An off-season Australian tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone that exists in the Australian region, between 90°E and 160°E, outside of the official season.

The early tropical cyclone outlook for the Coral Sea was issued due to “the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development”, according to the national forecaster.

The next tropical cyclone outlook will be issued at 2.30pm today.