Eyes on sky at future farmers expo

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Catherine Ganter will use a visit to Birchip Cropping Group’s Future Farmers Expo on Wednesday next week to explain weather variability and what farmers can expect from the season.

Last week, the bureau downgraded its El Niño watch to ‘inactive’ in response to latest weather-prediction modeling.

While the El Niño Southern Oscillation index, ENSO, might no longer be having a large effect on the season, there are other climate drivers that might impact on weather patterns.

One of these is the Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, the north-south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica. The changing position of the westerly wind belt influences the strength and position of cold fronts and mid-latitude storm systems.

In a positive SAM event, the wind belt contracts towards Antarctica, resulting in weaker than usual westerly wind and high-pressure systems over southern Australia, restricting the penetration of cold fronts inland.

A negative SAM event reflects on expansion of the belt of strong westerly wind towards the equator.

This shift results in more or stronger storms and low-pressure systems over southern Australia.

In recent years, a high positive SAM has dominated during autumn-winter and been a significant contributor to the millennium drought from 1997 to 2010.

“I’m keen to help farmers understand what the Southern Annular Mode is, and how it affects Victoria because it’s an important driver of rain variability in southern Australia,” Ms Ganter said.

Ms Ganter’s presentation will also include the latest seasonal outlook for July, August and September. With crops across the Wimmera and Mallee getting thirsty, the session will provide expo attendees with an opportunity to build their understanding of climate drivers and what they can expect leading up to spring.

Ms Ganter said the event would also provide a great opportunity for the bureau to hear and learn from growers.

“I am looking forward to hearing what the latest developments in the region are,” she said.

“The BCG Future Farmers Expo provides the perfect opportunity to talk to growers, hear what is going on, what they want to know, and most importantly what we can do to help.”

BOM forecaster Tom Feje, who forecasts for the public and aviation industry, will accompany Ms Ganter.

The BCG Future Farmers Expo is at Birchip P-12 School from 11am to 5pm.