Win or lose, it may not be Shorten’s day
LABOR is facing the wrenching prospect of losing every seat it contests against the Coalition today.
And on Thursday Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek urged colleagues to stop talking about themselves.
“The last thing we need to be doing is focusing on ourselves,” Ms Plibersek told ABC radio.
She said: “The idea that what we need to do is start staring at our own navels ... people will not forgive us for that.”
But she acknowledged the difficulty Labor faced in winning two seats it previously held among the five facing special elections this weekend.
“These are two very tough marginal seats where we’ve got the best candidates and the best policies,” she said.
“But we’re working against the fact that they are seats which have, most commonly, been held by the LNP in Queensland or by the Liberals in Tasmania.”
There will be five by- elections today with Labor going head- to- head with the Liberals in Longman ( Qld), Braddon ( Tasmania) and Mayo ( South Australia).
Liberals are not standing in Perth and Fremantle ( Western Australia) – Labor is expected to retain both of them.
The Liberals appear to be struggling to take back Mayo from previous incumbent Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie who is performing strongly.
Longman and Braddon are too close to call. Labor won both in 2016 on preferences, with One Nation costing the Liberals in Longman. This time around One Nation wants supporters to preference against Labor.
But Labor may be in the box seat. There should be some sympathy for Susan Lamb, just as there was for Barnaby Joyce in New England and John Alexander in Bennelong last year over citizenship issues.
And the issues are on Labor’s side. Health is No. 1 and the ALP has successfully painted Turnbull as a thief who’s taken $ 37 million from Caboolture Hospital to give the banks a tax cut.
The hospital claim seems to be giving Labor some heft. Likewise, attacking the government for cost of living and painfully high youth unemployment ( 18 per cent – up from 12 per cent in 2017) should pay dividends.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was campaigning in Braddon yesterday where the Libs have a strong chance of blocking a Labor return and some senior Coalition strate- gists reckon he can’t lose today.
If it ’s a good day for Labor, Bill Shorten’s leadership will be untouchable.
“Shorten remains our best asset for the next federal elec- tion,” says a Liberal insider deeply involved in planning the next federal campaign.
And, if Labor struggles today, it will lead to instability, infighting and disunity.