ELECTION BECOME

Agulf larger than Carpentaria opened this week between the Coalition and Labor on border security setting up an election battle over the boats. It’s a debate that many observers think Labor incautiously blundered into, risking its lead going into the coming election over an issue that has since the days of John Howard played into the hands of the Coalition.

For the Coalition, which has been trying to shift the narrative away from climate, disunity in its own ranks, and the ever-present “it’s time” factor that is inescapable for a government that is on its third prime minister in years, the issue’s renaissance can only be seen as a gift.

The question is, will it be enough to turn the tide in favour of the government?

Australian National University politics expert Dr Andrew Hughes summed up the dilemma when he said the medevac changes which saw a sitting government lose a vote on the floor of parliament for the first time since 1929 expose Mr Shorten on a front where Labor has been historically viewed by the electorate as weak.

“It’s a strong issue for the Coalition and they desperately needed to find one that puts pressure on Labor,” he said. “It has suddenly provided political hope for the Coalition. It’s an issue that speaks to their base, will motivate supporters and volunteers.

“It’s one of the few issue which really seems to bring together and unite all factions in the Coalition. For Labor this is the one Achilles heel issues because there is no sense within Labor that this is settled.”

The vote and debate around the Kerryn Phelpsinspired overhaul of medical transfers of boat people from Manus Island and Nauru to Australia laid bare the different philosophy guiding each of the major parties on the emotive issue.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison drew a “red line” putting border protection ahead of all else including his government’s control of the parliament.

In response, Opposition leader Bill Shorten looks set to take the risk of new boat arrivals inflaming the issue by putting the fate of asylum seekers who had previously attempted to make it to Australia by boat front and centre.

It revealed an ideological divide on national security that will have implications far beyond border policy and one that seems in many ways at odds with the traditional principles of the major parties — the Coalition’s commitment to strong borders, and Labor’s fondness for conspicuous compassion.

But it is this very desire to be seen as humanitarian on the issue of boat arrivals that poses the biggest danger for Labor.

As The Daily Telegraph reported yesterday, Scott Morrison has worked to quietly draw down the number of asylum seekers on Nauru. Public policy pronouncements of the sort Labor is given to risk sending the message to people smugglers that the door to Australia is once again open.

While Mr Morrison suffered a historic loss on the floor of parliament, Mr Shorten’s decision to stand firm on giving any two doctors the ability to sign off on medical transfers handed the Coalition a gift.

The Coalition have commanded control over border protection policy particularly since the Tampa crisis helped shape the narrative of the 2001 election and secured John Howard a third term.

At the beginning of 2001 it was thought the Coalition was headed for its demise, backed up by the loss of the Queensland seat of Ryan which had been a Liberal stronghold until the March by-election.

“Labor thought they would win that election. Then there was also September 11 and

Ansett (airlines) collapse but those issues really just reinforced the narrative change that happened over Tampa,” Dr Hughes said.

Tony Abbott’s 2013 campaign mantra to “stop the boats” also handed the Coalition electoral success.

Between 2007 and 2013 under the Labor governments of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard about 50,000 asylum seekers came by boat who were then packed into onshore detention centres for processing.

Back then, it was a winning issue for Tony Abbott, whose three-word slogan “stop the boats” became a centrepiece of a campaign that was derided by many commentators but which hit a nerve in electorates concerned about national sovereignty.

Morrison is clearly hoping the mood is the same, six years later.

The government has already announced it will need to reopen the Christmas Island Detention Centre to house the medical transferees who it expected will use legal processes in Australia to prevent their return to Manus Island or Nauru.

It was first opened in 2003 and since was the scene of much