Jobless rate going down

TOWNSVILLE’S unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in five years and is expected to drop further.

The unemployment rate for the Townsville region, which also includes the Burdekin, Hinchinbrook, Charters Towers and Palm Island, in August was 7 per cent, according to Australian Government Labour Market data.

TP Human Capital director Clayton Cook said the unemployment rate had steadied but would likely drop further in the next six months.

“Unemployment levels are steady with a positive medium term trend and expected to ease over the coming six months as some projects are completed and a seasonal conditions impact hiring rates,” he said. “Townsville’s future looks better than five years ago, with better performance expected in project construction, mining, health and social assistance, and manufacturing but continuing poor performance expected in retail and residential construction.”

Mr Cook said DS Economics research found there was $3.7 billion worth of significant projects under construction in Townsville.

“They estimate that flood recovery work represents 35 per cent of current projects under construction and that flood recovery work will be completed within 12 months,” he said.

“Projects expected to start across Townsville region in the next 12 to 24 months include JCU STEM building, Singapore Defence project, Genex Pumped Hydro, Adani’s rail line near Bowen and the Port Channel widening project.”

Mr Cook said Townsville’s 20-year average unemployment rate was 6.8 per cent, decade average 7.3 per cent and five-year average 8.6 per cent.

Townsville economist Colin Dwyer said each region needed to develop its own target range.

“We suggest, given Townsville region’s demographic profile and long-term workforce performance that the local full employment target range should be 6 to 7 per cent,” Mr Dwyer said.

“Traditionally 5 per cent is full employment, but it’s too narrow and Townsville has rarely achieved it in modern times, in part because Townsville has some unique demographic challenges that are more difficult to overcome than capital cities. One key local demographic challenge is Palm Island.

“Palm is an isolated community with significant unemployment and low job creation opportunity.”

Mr Dwyer said a single-figure target developed almost 100 years ago was improper in today’s society.