Virus yet to reach its peak

HEALTH researchers in the UK believe the peak in coronavirus infections in Wuhan may not be until the end of February.

China reported 116 more fatalities and 4823 new cases in Hubei province yesterday, bringing the death toll to 1483 and the total number of cases to more than 64,000.

On Thursday a huge spike in new cases – 14,800 in a single day – prompted alarm, but the increase was attributed to a new clinical definition. Whereas previously cases had only been confirmed once laboratory tests had been carried out, from Thursday China started counting new cases as those that had been diagnosed.

A team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine used dataset modelling this week to forecast the probable trajectory of coronavirus within Wuhan, and estimated that the virus would peak between mid and late February.

A key factor in the modelling is the reproduction number (R0) of the virus, defined as the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person if they have never been exposed to it before. In their modelling, the LSHTM team stated that prior to January 23, when travel restrictions were imposed on Wuhan, that number varied between 1.5 and 4.5.

Another modelling study published in The Lancet estimated the reproduction number of coronavirus to be 2.68.

By way of comparison, regular influenza has a reproduction number of two to three, and measles has a reproduction number of between 12 and 18.