Dawn Passage top pick
FROM the point of view of Timeform, Dawn Passage is already ahead of some previous Stradbroke winners in terms of ratings as he strives to secure his place in the field by winning today’s Fred Best Classic.
Dawn Passage has been high up in Stradbroke betting since the race was resurrected.
He landed 21st on the order of entry after Wednesday’s first acceptors, meaning he needs to win today to be assured of a run next week.
Punters like his chances of securing a run, as they have backed him heavily to win today’s Fred Best Classic, firming from $2.60 to $2.35 with Ladbrokes yesterday.
Timeform have him a clear top pick today, rating him at 116, with nearest rival Exhilarates at 109, and then back to The Odyssey at 108.
Certain Stradbroke runner Hightail, who has been scratched today, is also Timeform rated 108 at this stage.
Three-year-olds have often been over-hyped in the Stradbroke over the years, with their win rate not in alignment with market expectations.
Since 2000, 66 three-yearolds have contested the Stradbroke for five winners, those being Private Steer ($3.40 favourite), La Montagna ($11), Sniper’s Bullet ($6.50), Sincero ($7.50) and Impending ($20).
Of the 66, half of them started $11 or shorter and include seven beaten favourites.
Private Steer is the only one holding up the team. Before her, Never Undercharge won as a top pick in 1993.
In recent years, Champagne Cuddles, Lumosty and Srikandi (in her three-year-old year) were all rolled as the top pick in the Stradbroke.
According to Timeform, Dawn Passage has an edge on that trio, as he is rated higher at the same stage. Champagne
Cuddles was a 113 Timeform horse going into the Stradbroke, Lumosty off the same mark, and Srikandi 109.
Of the three-year-olds to win the Stradbroke since 2000, Dawn Passage is inferior to Impending (122) and Private Steer (120) to this point, on a par with Sniper’s Bullet, and superior to Sincero (112) and La Montagna (110).
Timeform Australia’s Gary Crispe said Dawn Passage is building a record that fits the profile of a horse capable of being a huge threat next week, should he get there.
“I’ve always thought the horse had a lot of potential, but just needed time to mature. The 1400m at this stage of his career is a perfect distance for him,” Crispe said.
“I think he’s extremely hard to beat (today) and then be an excellent chance next week.
“In a year where the quality is a little light on, it works in those three-year-olds’ favour.”