Extended lockdown only way to avoid third wave in Victoria

NEW analysis by a James Cook University expert shows that an extended lockdown in Victoria is necessary to avoid a third wave of COVID-19 infections.

GP, mathematician and JCU adjunct senior lecturer Dr David Kault has calculated how lifting restrictions at different stages would affect infection rates in Victoria, and the results show an extended lockdown is needed to end community transmission.

“If all restrictions were lifted while there is still community transmission from unknown sources, there is a high chance of a third wave in that state,” he said.

“Even if those cases dropped to an average of only one per day, there’d still be less than a 2 per cent chance of avoiding a third wave.

“However, if restrictions were to be maintained for another three weeks since the last date of community transmission, there is over 96 per cent chance that no further cases of community transmission will emerge.”

Dr Kault said that his calculations assume that contact tracing is not an effective alternative to lockdown in preventing the virus spread, and tracing teams becoming overwhelmed when case numbers increase.

“Contact tracing is only moderately effective compared to a lockdown,” he said. “This is why the contact tracing approach in NSW, that’s dealing with far fewer cases than Victoria, has only managed a marginal reduction in community transmission in a month, compared to Victoria where lockdown has reduced infection tenfold over this time.”