LNP IN POSITION FOR KEY SEAT

EXCLUSIVE Newspoll surveys have revealed Labor could surrender the hotly contested seat of Mundingburra to the LNP.

In the Townsville-based bellwether electorate, held by the incumbent government at every election since it was recreated in 1992, the LNP is in front by the thinnest of margins. The upcoming Queensland election remains on a knife edge with Labor and the LNP poised to claw marginal seats off each other, increasing the likelihood of a hung parliament. Results indicate undecided voters are gradually shifting their support behind opposition leader Deb Frecklington in a worrying trend for Labor.

THE Queensland election remains on a knife edge with Labor and the LNP poised to claw marginal seats off each other, increasing the likelihood of a hung parliament.

Exclusive Newspoll surveys, conducted for The Australian and The Courier-mail, have revealed Labor could take the seat of Pumicestone from the LNP but surrender hotly contested Mundingburra.

Poll results come after Labor this week began appealing for people to vote early after being forced to reshape its message in make-or-break regional areas amid mounting internal concern it was failing to shake off a concerted challenge from LNP leader Deb Frecklington.

“Right now we’re not ahead in the seats we need to get a majority,” one senior insider said.

In the Townsville-based bellwether electorate of Mundingburra, held by the incumbent government at every election since it was recreated in 1992, the LNP is in front by the thinnest of margins.

Voters have shifted from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the Greens to the major parties, with the LNP vote improving from 26.1 per cent in 2017 to 32 per cent while Labor improved from 31.4 per cent to 35 per cent. Katter’s Australian Party was on 14 per cent.

According to the Newspoll of more than 400 voters, the LNP was ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

In the marginal South Brisbane electorate of Mansfield, which Labor won on One Nation preferences in 2017, the LNP vote has increased from 40.2 to 45 per cent while Labor’s vote inched up from 39.4 per cent to 41 per cent. The One Nation vote collapsed from 9.1 per cent to just 2 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the LNP 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

The tight results in two of the most critical electorates will make the final week of the campaign critical for the prospects of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Ms Frecklington after the pair traded barbs on the economy, crime and infrastructure this week in regional areas.

Labor entered the campaign holding 48 of 93 seats – a twoseat majority – while the LNP held 38 electorates, meaning it must gain an extra nine to govern in its own right.

The loss of two seats would force Labor to look for support from independents and the

Greens during Queensland’s first four-year term.

The LNP would need the support of Katter’s Australian Party if it fell short of the 47 seats needed for majority government, with One Nation unlikely to be represented in the next state parliament.

Both leaders have claimed they won’t do deals to run minority administrations.

While Labor is at grave risk of losing two of its most marginal seats, the Newspoll indicates it will easily reclaim the Bribie Island and Caboolture-based electorate of Pumicestone, which it lost in 2017.

The One Nation vote has plummeted from 23.3 per cent to 9 per cent, continuing the trend across the state, as party matriarch Pauline Hanson struggles to make an impact compared to Clive Palmer and Katter’s Australian Party.

Labor’s vote has leapt from 35.6 per cent to 45 per cent in Pumicestone while the LNP has improved from 29.9 per cent to 37 per cent.

Two-party preferred, Labor has a healthy lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

In each of the three seats, Ms Palaszczuk still holds a sizeable lead as preferred premier, however Ms Frecklington has improved significantly compared to recent statewide opinion polls.

The two-term Premier was least popular in Mundingburra at 43 per cent although ahead of Ms Frecklington’s 36 per cent, and 21 per cent undecided. But in Mansfield Ms Palaszczuk led Ms Frecklington on the preferred premier measure, 54 per cent to 32 per cent.

Ms Frecklington’s worst result was in Pumicestone with just 29 per cent of voters believing she would be the better premier compared to Ms Palaszczuk’s 55 per cent.

The results indicate undecided voters are gradually shifting their support behind Ms Frecklington in a worrying trend for Labor just seven days before the official election day.