Putin turns off the tap
Massive gas pipeline closure leaves Europe economies out in the cold
Germany is threatened with significant energy shortages after Russia shut down one of its biggest natural gas pipelines to Western Europe, with ministers in Berlin warning of a “nightmare scenario” if the taps are turned off indefinitely.
Russia, hit with extensive Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, has sharply curtailed gas supplies to Europe in recent weeks, prompting accusations that it is using the continent’s reliance on its
energy as a tool to pressure states and drive divisions between them.
Poland, Bulgaria and Finland have been cut off from Russia’s gas networks and deliveries to Italy and Austria reduced by up to 70 per cent.
There are fears that without the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – shut down for 10 days, ostensibly for maintenance – Germany will not have enough gas to get through the winter.
The pipeline carries up to 55 billion cubic metres of gas across the Baltic each year, accounting for well over a third of Germany’s imports, although the volume has already reduced by 60 per cent since the start of the summer.
The German government regards the route as essential for its plan to amass enough gas in underground storage facilities to see the economy through the next winter without having to ration supply.
Russia insists Nord Stream 1 will resume operations next Thursday. According to state media in Belarus, Vladimir Putin pledged to keep up the flow of hydrocarbons despite the EU sanctions on his country. However, Germany and its allies have little faith in that promise and officials are preparing for a worst-case scenario in which the gas reserves run out as soon as January.
The most pessimistic models suggest the German economy could collapse by as much as 12.7 per cent, in what would be the country’s worst recession since World War II.
“The abrupt end of Russian gas imports would also have a significant impact on the workforce in Germany. About 5.6 million jobs would be affected,” said Bertram Brossardt, head of the VBW industry association of Bavaria.
France is bracing itself for the worst with an attempt to model how the disruption might cascade through its own industry.
“Let’s prepare for a total cut-off of Russian gas: today that is the likeliest option,” Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister, told a conference in Aix-en-provence. “We have to anticipate it and put ourselves in the order of battle from this moment.”