Trump’s knocking on Joe’s door
DONALD Trump is set to launch his third White House run next week, in a bid to capitalise on what is expected to be a Republican Party victory in the US midterm elections.
The Republicans are in the box seat to retake control of congress, although President Joe Biden said on the eve of the election the Democrats would “surprise the living devil out of a lot of people”.
Rumours had swirled that Mr Trump would use a final rally in Ohio to officially announce his candidacy for 2024, spooking some Republicans who feared that would motivate more Democrats to vote in the midterms.
The former president stopped short of that but confirmed he would be “making a very big announcement on Tuesday November 15”.
While the parties of firstterm presidents have historically lost control of congress at the midterms, Mr Biden said he was “optimistic” the Democrats could at least hold the Senate.
“I know that sounds like a very high expectation,” he said at a rally in Maryland.
“We know in our bones that our democracy is at risk, and we know that this is your moment to defend it, preserve and protect it, choose it. We’ll meet this moment.”
Independent election analysis outlet The Cook Political Report said control of the House of Representatives – where all 435 seats are up for grabs – was “easily within reach” for the Republicans.
It projected the Senate – where 34 out of 100 seats are in play – could also fall the way of the Republicans from the current 50-50 deadlock.
With voters disillusioned about the economy, Mr Biden acknowledged that Democrats were “in this election when history suggests we shouldn’t be”.
“We should be being blown away,” he said. “If we’re able to hold on, we’re going to be in incredible shape.”
Former Australian ambassador to the US Joe Hockey said Republican control of the House or Senate would make “US politics appear more chaotic”, blocking Mr Biden’s legislative agenda and targeting him with inquiries “to score political points”.
“But importantly for Australia, on the issues that matter most in our region – on defence and China – the Republicans and the Democrats are aligned,” Mr Hockey said.
“Both parties are opposed to China and are trying to push Chinese companies out of US supply chains in favour of trusted partners, including Australia, which will continue to create opportunities for our businesses.”
Charles Edel, the Australia chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, predicted a Republicanled congress would also push for stronger support for Taiwan but could pressure Mr Biden to wind back aid for Ukraine. He said America’s “very messy, very loud” political system – including questions about election integrity – presented “a challenge for how America presents itself as a champion of democracy”.
But that should not “preclude US efforts on the global stage, particularly in dealing with the advance of authoritarian actors”.
At least 43 million Americans voted prior to election day, with those early ballots likely to slow down counting.
The midterms are also once again under a cloud of Russian interference, with a close ally of President Vladimir Putin declaring: “We interfered, we are interfering.”