Time for some strait talk on AUKUS pact
Does Donald Trump support selling nuclear subs to Australia? It’s the $368bn question that hasn’t been publicly posed to the former and potentially future US president.
Strangely enough, the closest thing we have to an answer is Trump’s reaction to the claim he shared submarine secrets with Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt. He dismissed the story last year – except for the part where Pratt encouraged him to sell us nuclear vessels. Trump said they were the best “anywhere in the world”, he liked “creating jobs in America”, and the alternative was for allies “to buy from Russia, China”.
That’s not a bad sign for AUKUS, though it did nothing to dampen fears in Canberra about the fate of the pact under a second Trump administration.
While Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was too diplomatic to acknowledge such anxiety, his visit to Washington DC was part of a growing push to bed down key initiatives between the US and its allies ahead of November’s election.
The irony is, no one seems to be considering the alternative: what if Trump loves AUKUS?
There’s every chance he will, for the reasons mentioned above, but ultimately because he seems more interested in the power struggle with China than backing Ukraine or even Israel.
If so, Trump would inevitably express his affection for AUKUS in ways Anthony Albanese would find uncomfortable. The PM is clearly determined to avoid upsetting China to preserve the so-called “stabilisation” of Australia’s relationship. Trump would have no such tact.
Albanese has already had to hose down ANTI-AUKUS views in Labor’s left. Imagine how the comrades would react if Trump claimed our vessels were part of an anti-china war machine. There was much handwringing this month when Kurt
Campbell, one of Joe Biden’s top diplomats, suggested AUKUS submarines had “enormous implications … including in crossstrait circumstances” over Taiwan.
That this was in any way controversial speaks volumes for the government’s failure to articulate the pact’s purpose.
As opposition defence spokesman Andrew Hastie said last week: “We must speak more honestly with the Australian people.”
Australia’s ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd did so in an address on deterring China over Taiwan. But he had a disclaimer – he was sharing “very much my own views” – because no minister in Canberra would be so candid.