Interesting times a challenge for Australia
The expression “may you live in interesting times” is often attributed to ancient Chinese philosophy, though this may not be strictly so. One alternate view suggests it was British MP Austen Chamberlain whose prime minister brother Neville’s gullibility over German assurances led Britain into interesting times in 1939.
Last week China’s air force certainly created interesting times for an RAN Seahawk helicopter crew operating off HMAS Hobart in international waters in the Yellow Sea. A Chinese Chengdu J-10 fighter jet released flares into the helicopter flight path, an act described as unsafe behaviour endangering the aircraft and crew.
Defence Minister Richard Marles said the flares were deployed 300m in front of and 60m above the helicopter, causing the pilot to “take evasive action in order to not be hit by those flares”.
Prime Minister Albanese said it was unprofessional and unacceptable.
Although China claimed the aircraft was “spying”, it could hardly claim the Maxwell Smart defence, “Sorry about that chief, would you believe, missed it by that much!”
Saturday’s incident was the latest in a series of military and diplomatic provocations committed by China against ADF assets in the area, from aluminium chaff ingested in flight into an RAAF aircraft engine, and potentially disabling sonar pulses affecting RAN clearance divers from HMAS Toowoomba operating in Japanese waters.
Bluff, bluster and deception are standard tactics in many disputes.
Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu wrote, “warfare is the way of deception”. The potential for escalation is immense.
More serious confrontations initiated by China may also serve the purpose of forcing a potential foe to reveal the capabilities of deployed forces.
Sun Tzu again: “Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated in a hundred battles.”
Current international instability and conflicts serve a valuable purpose for China, distracting other interested regional parties from being able to focus on a single issue.
Likewise North Korea’s posturing and belligerence are concerning.
Australia’s leadership has to tread a fine line between political gestures and protests and China’s apparent determination to foment regional instability.
The stakes are high for our regional alliances, though the genuine risk of accidental casualties may be too high a price. Sun Tzu also said, “the greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” Interesting times indeed.