Bubble without quarantine

A NEW study conducted by the University of Otago has found a multi-layered approach to travel involving PCR testing could replace 14-day quarantine periods for Australians holidaying in New Zealand under a transTasman bubble scenario.

The study, authored by epidemiologists Michael Baker and Nick Wilson, sought to investigate the risks of a COVID-19 outbreak associated with air travel to New Zealand from a country with a very low prevalence of COVID-19 infection such as Australia.

Using a stochastic version of the SEIR model to calculate the threat, the report found that a combination of exit and entry screening, thermal cameras, symptom questionnaires, masks on aircraft and two PCR tests could replace mandatory quarantine periods.

“Policymakers can require multilayered interventions to markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus into a COVID19-free nation via air travel,” the report stated in its conclusion, cautioning that all approaches would require “continuous careful management monitoring and evaluation” if implemented.

Based on the premise of one flight arriving each day from Australia, the study concluded that without any controls on arrivals there would be an outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand on average every 1.7 years, while with a multi-layered approach in place, this risk would be vastly reduced to just one outbreak every 29.8 years.

The study also recommended contact tracing capabilities and conducting tissue tests for the virus for on travellers on day three and day 12 after arrival.

A trans-Tasman bubble is likely to go ahead at some stage in Jul.

The University of Otago study is yet to be peer reviewed.

View the full study HERE.