APAC “fragile & uneven”

THE Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has warned that travel growth scenarios for the APAC region will remain fragile and uneven until 2023.

In the just-released Executive Summary of the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023 report, which reviews the growth prospects for 39 Asia-Pacific destinations, PATA stated that even under a mild scenario, the region is likely to have around 4% fewer arrivals in 2023 when compared to 2019 numbers.

Under PATA’s medium scenario, visitor numbers in 2023 could be less than three-quarters of the 2019 volume, while under the most severe forecast, less than half of the 2019 volume of international arrivals would be expected in 2023.

However, PATA CEO Mario Hardy said there was still cause for optimism in the future.

“While growth in international visitor arrivals into and across the Asia-Pacific remains difficult in 2021, there are promising signs for 2022 and 2023,” he said.

“A return to near pre-COVID-19 levels of arrivals, while possible by 2023, appears now to be feasible, at least if conditions as they are now, abate quickly and permanently.

“Much, however, will depend on events during this present northern winter and the arrival and management of the more traditional flu season.”

Hardy added that travel and tourism performance metrics in the future may lean toward the length of stay and visitor satisfaction, rather than on a generic headcount of arrivals, which may provide a better guide to travel potential.

The PATA forecast report this year focuses on regions and subregions due to the rapid and fluid nature of the pandemic.