Managing the season ahead

The three month climate outlook is not particularly promising for temperature and rainfall.

This translates into increased risk of a warm and dry start to autumn in Victoria’s dairy regions.

At the end of February there was above average to average soil moisture which will help to make autumn rainfall and irrigation go further.

February growth rates have generally been above average (East Gippsland being an exception) and silage reserves are generally high.

High cereal grain and hay yields have transferred into lower grain and hay prices. Generally speaking, this makes them a cost-effective option for filling a genuine feed gap, despite the current lower milk price.

Due to good seasonal conditions, temporary irrigation water price is also much lower this year.

Implications for growing pasture The increased probability of warmer temperatures and below average rainfall has associated risks to consider and plan for.

For irrigation pastures, it means there may be a need for more purchased water to get the desired level of pasture growth.

For rain fed pastures, it will mean less autumn pasture growth and maybe a later break.

A strategy to address the possible lower amount of pasture growth should be considered. Revise the plan as the season rolls out and adjust if required.

Considerations could include adjusting stocking rate or dry-off date, agistment of stock, supplement feed purchasing decisions, nitrogen use, irrigation timing and water purchasing, and the timing of pasture renovation.

There will be financial budgeting implications depending on the strategy used. Costs may be higher than planned and/or milk income lower than planned.

Early budgeting helps finance management decisions; such as adjusting spending in other areas of the business, repayment of debt and the level of borrowing.

Hopefully, little or no adjustment ends up being required (the forecasts are probability based – an average autumn is still possible).

Pasture renovation and re-sowing Generally speaking, summer conditions have enabled more pasture plants to survive the summer.

With denser pastures there is likely to be less need for weed control and over-sowing/renovating this autumn.

The impact of a wet winter in the northern irrigation area has had the opposite effect, with an increased need for pasture renovation.

With a three month climate outlook for higher than average temperatures, and a lower probability of receiving average rainfall, there is greater than normal risk associated with early sowing of pasture and crop.

Young seedlings are very susceptible to high temperatures and moisture stress. Consider the risk of seedling deaths when deciding on sowing date.

A late sowing date can also be a problem. The onset of cold conditions before plants are well established can significantly slow plant growth over winter.

Feed management Summer growth rates have generally been above average in most dairy regions. Silage reserves are also good. This has resulted in less need for purchased supplements overall.

The quality of home-grown silage is generally lower this season.

Farmers may be considering improving the quality of the ration with higher energy density feeds such as grain. If pasture availability is low, high protein supplements such as canola may also be considered.

Pasture is high in protein (almost as high as high protein supplements), so good amounts of pasture in the diet will have a big bearing on the need for protein supplements.

A feed plan for the autumn and winter will help farmers determine the need for purchased supplements.

As a result of the generally favourable season to date, it is likely that less purchased feed will be required than normal.

It is a good idea to monitor the feed plan monthly and adjust it as required in response to seasonal conditions.