Septem­ber rain well down

Warragul & Drouin Gazette - - NEWS -

Septem­ber rain­fall for War­ragul was well down on the del­uge ex­pe­ri­enced last year, record­ing 65.1 mil­lime­tres com­pared to 144.6 mil­lime­tres in 2017.

That fig­ure was also down on the Septem­ber av­er­age of 103 mil­lime­tres.

Had it not been for sig­nif­i­cant rain on Septem­ber 7 and Septem­ber 16 (14 mil­lime­tres on each day), along with 15 mil­lime­tres on Septem­ber 29, rain­fall for the month would have been very scarce. Rain had fallen over 11 days. The year to date has seen 620.3 mil­lime­tres fall over 107 days, down on the av­er­age of 733.8 mil­lime­tres.

While pos­si­ble show­ers have been fore­cast for War­ragul to­day and to­mor­row, no more than four mil­lime­tres of rain are an­tic­i­pated with a 50 per cent chance of rain.

The Oc­to­ber to De­cem­ber out­look in­di­cates the trend of be­low av­er­age rain­fall will con­tinue, ex­pect­ing the eastern and south­ern states of Aus­tralia to be drier than av­er­age.

A drier and warmer than av­er­age end to the year would mean a low chance of re­cov­ery for drought-af­fected ar­eas of eastern Aus­tralia.

Oc­to­ber shows a strong like­li­hood of drier con­di­tions across most of the eastern twothirds of the coun­try, and south-west Western Aus­tralia. How­ever, there are ex­cep­tions along parts of the east coast of Aus­tralia to the east of the Great Di­vid­ing Range, where there is no strong in­di­ca­tion of ei­ther a wet­ter or drier month.

Oc­to­ber to De­cem­ber days are very likely to be warmer than av­er­age for most of Aus­tralia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than av­er­age for most of Aus­tralia.

The El Niño–South­ern Os­cil­la­tion (ENSO) and the In­dian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are cur­rently neu­tral. How­ever, cur­rent ob­ser­va­tions and model out­looks in­di­cate El Niño and a pos­i­tive IOD could de­velop in spring.

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