Lucia can beat Winx
... but not today and not over 1400m, says trainer Kris Lees
IT says a lot about Winx’s awesome reputation that the return of Lucia Valentina is almost an afterthought today.
The two super mares, who have won nine Group 1 races and more than $10 million between them, clash in the Group 2 Warwick Stakes (1400m) at Randwick.
Winx and Lucia Valentina are expected to run the quinella – but Winx was rated $1.30 with UBET in overnight betting and no one is anticipating her winning momentum to be stopped.
Even Lucia Valentina’s trainer, Kris Lees, baulked at suggestions his three-time Group 1 winner could produce an upset.
Lees believes Lucia Valentina can challenge Winx given the right circumstances – 2000m and a genuine tempo – but his mare won’t get either today.
“Lucia Valentina has sprinted well in the past but that was in races like the Tramway Handicap when she had a genuine tempo,’’ Lees said.
“She hasn’t been able to do that first-up in a weight-forage race before but, in saying that, I am happy with how she is coming up for the spring.
“Her trials have been very good. She has looked sharp and keen. If she is close enough on the turn, we know she can run terrific closing sectionals so we are hoping she runs well today.’’
Lucia Valentina, second favourite at $5.50 for the Warwick Stakes, hasn’t raced since her outstanding win in Sydney’s richest race – the $4 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick during The Championships in April.
Lees took an unconventional path with Lucia Valentina into the Queen Elizabeth, giving her only one lead-up run. He is planning another relatively light program for the mare this spring.
“She will probably have only one more run before the Cox Plate in a race like the Underwood Stakes,’’ he said.
“The plan is to then go to the Mackinnon Stakes and Hong Kong is also on the radar again, but that is a long way off.’’
Winx, the darling of race fans is proving a popular investment for punters as backing her is proving far more profitable than relying on bank interest.
If a punter wagered $100 on Winx in each of her nine-race winning streak, the return would be $2230.
But if a punter placed a $100 bet on Winx to win at the start of her winning sequence and let the winnings ride each race, the return would be $181,580.
It seems only bad lucky can beat Winx and punters are relying on jockey Hugh Bowman to ensure that doesn’t happen.
Some of the big bets for Winx include $4000 at $1.30, $3000 at $1.35, $3000 at $1.30 and $2000 (multiple times) at $1.30.
Trainer Chris Waller and Bowman are not going to be locked into a race plan with Winx today as even they are unsure how this race will unfold.
“The beauty of having the great jockeys on board such as Hugh Bowman is they make the right decisions more often than not,’’ Waller said.
“If you go out there with a pre-race plan it can easily come undone. So, as soon as the barriers crash back, the jockey’s natural instincts come into play and I will leave it to Hughie to make the right decisions.
“I respect Hughie as a rider and it is just fantastic to have him on board.’’
Bowman said Winx may well end up in the unusual position of having to set the pace.
Lees also produces his other big spring carnival hopeful at Randwick today, with Le Romain resuming in the Show County Quality (1200m).
Le Romain won the Group 1 Randwick Guineas in the autumn and is shaping as Lees’s big Epsom Handicap hope in the spring.