GRAHAM HRYCE LABOR LIKELY TO SEIZE THE DAY
Electoral boundary changes and the Hanson factor point to an early poll
PREMIER Annastacia Palaszczuk must be seriously considering calling an early election.
Why do I say that? For a number of reasons.
First, she is a popular and competent leader. She is a quintessential Queenslander: intelligent, unpretentious, plain speaking and tough. She is cut from the same cloth as Peter Beattie and Anna Bligh.
Unfortunately, a number of her ministers are fourth-rate performers. The major scandals which have recently engulfed the rail system and Department of Communities and Child Safety would have destroyed a less effective premier, but she has risen above them, surprisingly unscathed for the time being.
She does not, however, need any more scandals between now and the election.
Second, the Liberal National Party leader, Tim Nicholls, has failed to make any ground on Labor or dent the Premier’s popularity, despite being handed plenty of ammunition by underperforming Labor ministers (George Brandis’ recent off-the-record assessment of the general quality of Queensland politicians was, sadly, pretty close to the mark).
There were rumours over Christmas that Nicholls would be replaced as LNP leader, and his performance has not improved noticeably since then.
At election time the Premier would want to be facing Nicholls, rather than his deputy Deb Frecklington.
Third, and most importantly, is the continuing rise in popularity of Pauline Hanson and One Nation.
Left-wing commentators may denigrate, dismiss and scoff at Hanson but it is absolutely clear she will play a crucial role at the next Queensland election.
At the 1998 election, One Nation captured 25 per cent of the vote and won 11 seats.
Current polls show a similar level of support and it is increasing daily.
This is not difficult to understand unless, of course, you are blinded by the doctrines of political correctness.
Ordinary voters in Western democracies have lost all respect for mainstream parties and professional politicians.
And why wouldn’t they? In the past 20 years politicians have done nothing to mitigate the disastrous side-effects of globalisation on ordinary people, eg rising unemployment and falling wages. Plotting leadership coups has replaced policy development as the primary activity of politicians.
Voters are also sick and tired of being lied to by mainstream left and right-wing politicians alike. Only a few years ago, Tony Abbott assured voters that Islamic terrorism had nothing to do with Islam.
This kind of political lie accounts for much of Hanson’s popularity because she is virtually the only politician willing to take a stand against them.
Her anti-Muslim and antiimmigration policies resonate deeply with voters who have been told for years by politically correct elites that they have no right to debate these issues because they are “racists”.
These elites helped create Hanson by ignoring pressing political problems and stifling political debate.
It is clear Hanson’s popularity will increase over time, if for no other reason than mainstream politicians and the politically correct elites are incapable of modifying their modus operandi.
The blatant lie told by a Muslim apologist on the ABC this week – to the effect that Islam was a “feminist “religion – is probably by itself worth a few percentage points to Hanson in the polls.
Hanson is also a much cleverer politician this time round, and it would be a serious politi- cal error for Labor to assume she and One Nation will selfdestruct if given sufficient time. That will definitely not happen.
The Premier has already indicated Labor will not govern with the assistance of One Nation. The LNP has taken the contrary position.
It follows that the only way Labor can win the forthcoming election is to contain One Nation as best it can, hold on to all its seats and inflict as much damage on the LNP as possible.
The real issue for the Premier is whether Labor’s prospects in this regard will be better or worse later in the year.
There is one other matter which may cause the Premier to seriously consider calling an early election: the pending electoral redistribution.
This substantial redistribution involves the creation of four new seats in the southeast corner as well as the redrawing of the electoral boundaries in numerous existing seats.
It is not yet clear what the political ramifications of this redistribution will be, but at first glance it would not seem to benefit the Labor Party.
No doubt Labor powerbrokers and election strategists will be poring over the detail of the proposed redistribution.
The Premier said yesterday “It is my clear intention that we will fight the next election on whatever the electoral commission hands out”.
An early election would be held under the current electoral boundaries. It follows that if Labor forms the view it has better prospects of winning the election under them, the odds on an early election would firm.
In my view, Labor’s chances of winning the next election are better now than later. My money is on an early election.