Young families replacing retirees

IT has been dubbed “God’s waiting room” for its large population of retirees.

But young families could be the Gold Coast’s saviour as its bellwether property market begins to slide, according to a leading analyst.

The Glitter Strip real estate market faced a “challenging” and “tough” time ahead amid falling sales, a glut of new apartments and a retreat of Chinese investors, a Property Council lunch heard yesterday.

But the Coast was also better placed to avoid a major slump than other parts of Australia because of continuing strong interstate migration, especially from young families.

Luke Dixon, head of real estate research for AMP Capital, told the lunch that the Coast’s population was growing at 2.4 per cent a year, higher than anywhere else in Australia.

He said whereas retirees flocked to the Coast in the 1990s, young families were now moving in as the jobs market diversified.

He said the AMP-owned Pacific Fair‘s customer base had doubled to about 30 per cent over the past five years.

Mr Dixon said the Coast was also set for “fairly sustained” tourism growth.

And while China’s growth and investment had slowed, India’s economy was still growing at about 9 per cent a year, with many Indians heading to the Coast to study.

David Brown, an executive with major developer Sunland, said Asian investment in the unit market had dropped to “almost zero” and possible changes to negative gearing by Federal Labor were spooking Australian investors.

He said Coast apartment sales had dropped from about 250 a quarter to 150 and the current stock of 2500 units would take about four years to clear.

Developers including Sunland were deferring projects, Mr Brown said. “The market is softening, there’s no doubt about that,” he said.

But Mr Brown said while the market would be “challenging” and “tough”, he did not believe the Coast would experience the 7-10 per cent falls in property values seen in Sydney and Melbourne.