YOU DECIDE

YOUR ULTIMATE GUIDE TO TODAY’S COUNCIL ELECTION

HOT FAVOURITES BY DIVISION

FOUR new city councillors will be elected after today’s local council poll. Mayor Tom Tate is running for a third term in office. This has been the craziest, most chaotic and arguably important local government campaign set against a backdrop of coronavirus which sucked up media coverage and stopped volunteers at booths. Talking to election analysts, poll insiders, campaign supporters across the Gold Coast – here is the ultimate punter’s guide on the favourites to win and why.

MAYOR Virginia Freebody, Mona Hecke, Kris Bourbon, Gary Pead, Brett Lambert, Derek Rosborough, Suphakan Somsriruen, Tom Tate.

TEAM Tate is the hot favourite. But take a closer look and the results could tell another story on the night.

The consistent word from booths is apart from the mayor, health author and businesswoman Mona Hecke has had the largest presence. No-one is more passionate about becoming mayor than businessman Brett Lambert who early on suggested freezing rates and levies before the virus took hold. But the “workingclass” mayor is self-funded, and his rivals tip him to run third. Ms Hecke’s profile in terms of corflutes is limited in the suburbs, and she used one of her last Facebook posts to blast the media for lack of coverage.

Cr Tate won with 63.86 per cent of the vote at the 2016 poll. How much of that lead will be cut back?

Poll insiders suggest Cr Tate needs to emerge with at least a 55 per cent of the vote, on a two-party preferred basis. Ms Hecke is tipped to poll a large chunk of the rest.

What if it dips below 55 per cent? The Mayor will have trouble in getting support among the new councillors for pet projects like the offshore cruise ship terminal and cableway. “The problem for Tom is if he pulls back too much in his vote, gets the third election blues and he loses his mandate. He could find himself a lame duck mayor,” a poll insider says.

And Ms Hecke, the Community Alliance’s preferred candidate? Until the mayor held a press conference calling the Aussie Health Girl a “hypocrite anti-vaxxer” most independent sources at the pre-poll booths confirmed she was travelling stronger than expected.

“She’s blown it. She should have run more of a mainstream campaign, less to the (political) Left, and with better advisers than the ones she has,” the political insider says.

DIVISION 1

Alec Pokarier, Renee Clark, Mark Hammel, Andrew Stimson and Pat Reynolds

ALEX Pokarier is a young LNP gun running as an independent. He started early, walked the streets – he has admitted the poll is a road to recovery having lost his driver’s licence after driving over the limit – banged the drum about hooning and crime. Even his opponents say he is the favourite to become the new city councillor in the far north.

Pat Reynolds is another front runner. An experienced campaigner, he started in the New Year but young Mark Hammel, from solid northern rural stock, has invested in the most professional campaign, building transport plans and putting a real stake down in future planning for the city’s fastest-growing area.

Is the force of electoral opinion with young Hammel? Deputy Mayor Donna Gates backs him, caught handing out his how-to-vote cards. He could beat young Pokarier but as Yoda would say: “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future ...”

DIVISION 2 William Owen Jones, John Wayne

THIS is a sequel to the original Gunfight at the OK Helensvale Library.

William Owen-Jones, originally from up yonder Beenleigh way, won the 2012 poll, smashing then Helensvale Sheriff John Wayne — 43.53 per cent of the vote to 31.93 per cent.

The division was uncontested in 2016 only for Mr Wayne to make a shock return not from Hollywood but Jakarta, for this street brawl assisted by his deputy Grant Pforr, another former councillor.

Mr Pforr has carried a tape measure with him at the polling booths – and Deputy Mayor Gates and Cr Owen-Jones have not needed it to maintain several paces from him.

Mr Wayne has been singing the praises of Mayor Tate’s rival Mona Hecke at the booths, and should gain votes from her supporters.

He is the Community Alliance’s favoured candidate despite Cr Owen-Jones, arguably council’s smartest financial mind, being against the offshore CST and other mayoral pet projects.

Cr Owen-Jones will sustain only a minor blood wound. Anyone for a trilogy?

DIVISION 3

Donna Gates, Wayne Purcell

DONNA Gates won the 2012 poll in Division 1 with 66.68 per cent of the vote. The division was uncontested in 2016.

The Deputy Mayor is standing in the new Division 3 after boundary changes. The seat includes Coomera, Maudsland, Wongawallen and Willow Vale.

Mr Purcell is a full-time dad and former environmental manager who put his hand up because of genuine concerns about development and lack of services and infrastructure.

Being on the campaign trail appears to have given Cr Gates a boost in confidence, but don’t be surprised if this term, possibly her last in council, will focus on planning in the fast-growing north rather than being a deputy.

DIVISION 4 Cameron Caldwell, Kristyn Boulton

HOW could two sitting councillors end up running against each other when Division 7 next door would have secured them another term in office?

The boundary changes really gave Cr Caldwell no choice – he would not stand against Cr Owen-Jones who commands Helensvale in Division 2. At least 60 per cent of Cr Boulton’s current ratepayers are in this new division, number crunchers suggest.

Colleagues remark about Cr Caldwell’s love for politics – say he is a fan of the series House of Cards. They privately commended him on fronting up for the heated City Plan meetings.

But Cr Boulton is an oldfashioned grassroots community campaigner who will put the butter and jam on the scone and stay around for a chat. Do not underestimate her.

Cr Boulton’s team believe she was still in the contest before volunteers were pulled from booths. Paradise Point will be a key.

Cr Caldwell would have won on the election day with a sea of blue supporters – now all a bit greyer.

DIVISION 5 Peter Young

NOW, this is much easier to determine. Councillor Young will win. He’s the only candidate. But he has been campaigning, behind the scenes, on Facebook, for Mona Hecke rather than the Mayor. He and the mayor clashed in the last term of council. Cr Tate only recently withdrew defamation action.

Cr Young also supports John Wayne in the gunfight against Cr Owen-Jones in Helensvale.

He and Cr Owen-Jones were previously good neighbours and fought for road improvements in the fastgrowing suburbs. Bridges need to be mended here. Barman, two whiskeys for these blokes please.

DIVISION 6 Shaelee Welchman, Michael Pulford, Brooke Patterson, Josephine Tobias, Susie Gallagher

A BOOK could be written about this. The most hotly contested division in the city. Belongs to retiring councillor Dawn Crichlow.

Ms Patterson, a finance expert who is no stranger to campaigning, sprinted to the lead with a smart, strongly financed campaign.

Council worker Shaelee Welchman, who employed a veteran campaign strategist, began much later but if this was a 400m race – she is edging in front on the final turn. Watch on the outside for businessman Michael Pulford who wears A New Dawn T-shirt.

Into this mix add Cr Crichlow herself who endorsed Ms Welchman. This could boost her vote between

5 to 10 per cent.

If Ms Patterson wins it is due to starting earlier, knocking on more doors. If Ms Welchman succeeds, she can thank the old Dawn for becoming the new one.

DIVISION 7

Ryan Bayldon-Lumsden, Andre Saint-Flour, Tony Melia, Wendy Coe, Avin Javanmard

TEACHER Ryan BayldonLumsden is the city’s fittest and most flexible candidate. He’s a former gymnast. His pics on Facebook also show him in an Arundel Primary School uniform, so this is his heartland.

Mr Bayldon-Lumsden is an LNP member but self-funded his campaign, up to $60,000, much more than main rival and fellow LNP member Wendy Coe.

Mr Bayldon-Lumsden would leave work at 4pm as a TSS teacher on a Friday and start his job caring for children with disabilities on a weekend. The education sector will lose a valuable teacher after Saturday as council gains its newest student.

DIVISION 8

Joshua Smith, Matthew Armstrong, Bob La Castra

THESE guys all seemed to sing from the same song sheet when they appeared at the last

of the Bulletin’s You Decide poll forums. They were all impressive and enthusiastic.

But Cr La Castra has always been the leader of the band around Ashmore and its surrounding older suburbs.

HOTA is closed down so his permanent day gig at council across at the chambers is set to continue.

DIVISION 9

David Guimaraes, MaryAnne Hossack, Glenn Tozer, Keith Douglas

DRIVE around Springbrook, look at the fencing on the rural properties, and placards will appear showing a photograph of Keith Douglas next to a beast. No bull, this is serious.

His entry into this sleepy Mudgeeraba campaign, along with the late arrival of educator and chamber of commerce leader Mary-Anne Hossack, against Councillor Glenn Tozer has caused some cow dung to be tossed.

Cr Tozer has been forced to spend much of his time explaining why as a councillor, if he suspects wrongdoing, he is legally required to report it. He announced his support for mayoral rival Mona Hecke.

Cr Tate posed for photographs with Mr Douglas and Ms Hossack; made no comment later. Obviously he wanted to make it known to his supporters who they should vote for.

In its citywide survey of candidates, the Community Alliance has, as expected, backed Peter Young and Daphne McDonald. Cr Tozer, who opposes spending more money studying the offshore cruise ship terminal and cableway to Springbrook, was the only other councillor to be given the green light. Even the Mayor’s camp concedes his popularity and return here.

DIVISION 10

Adrian Johnston,

Mike Winlaw,

Darren Taylor, Rowan Panozzo, Seema Chauhan, Eddy Sarroff, Stephen Cornelius

OK, Melbourne Cup-size field of excellent choices trying to win the grand prize of the new super tourism division of Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach under boundary changes. The winner will effectively replace two retiring councillors – Gary Baildon and Paul Taylor.

Cr Taylor’s son Darren, tourism identity Mike Winlaw and former councillor Eddy Sarroff are the frontrunners – apologies AJ, but the FM radio dial and its listeners would be the poorer for losing a champion broadcaster to the Evandale chamber.

Mr Taylor would have been the favourite if polling booths allowed volunteers on campaigning day because he had an army of community support, so too Mr Winlaw renowned for running a military-style operation.

Mr Sarroff’s support will be a true indicator of the protest vote against Mayor Tom Tate, more so than Mona Hecke’s vote because voters who agree with his stand against cruise ships and casinos know his experience as a councillor. This campaign is his best in recent times.

Best of luck gentlemen. The tourist capital will not be a loser here in terms of outspoken, enthusiastic and parochial representation.

DIVISION 11 Hermann Vorster, Chantal Clarke

WATCHING Councillor Hermann Vorster regularly being interviewed about crime on Coast TV news bulletins, it is impossible not to think his division must resemble Hill Street Blues.

Cheered on by residents, some of whom refer to him as Robocop, the tree-loving councillor has possibly planted more CCTVs than natives in Robina and Varsity Lakes.

But despite all this media hype, his colleagues say his greatest contribution has been meeting his election pledge to reduce the traffic congestion around the super schools in the region.

Ms Clarke‘s voluntary work includes cleaning up the freshwater lakes. A climate change scientist who became an academic after a tough childhood, she has some long, thoughtout solutions to improve opportunities for bored teenagers on the verge of creating trouble.

Ms Clarke knows she cannot possibly beat Cr Vorster from such a short campaign, but democracy is the winner and knowing Cr Vorster’s love for politics, he will welcome this contest.

DIVISION 12 Pauline Young, Cathy Osborne,

Zac Revere, Scott Turner

THE most friendly campaign in the divisions. Young Zac Revere spent a good part of it in the final weeks fixing the corflutes of Cr Young. They both shared a joke. He will, in four to eight years, by the judgment of those involved in these campaigns, become a winning candidate.

Ms Osborne is opposed to light rail and it will be interesting to see how her messages resonate with voters.

The biggest loss for residents from this campaign will be from the boundary changes. How can Burleigh be no longer part of this division? Ms Young will ride the rail south as a councillor.

DIVISION 13 Scott Wallace, Daphne McDonald, Bern Young, Katrina Beikoff

EVERYONE please duck – we are in Daphne’s world and this is the dirtiest election battle. No bull, your boots will be cleaner walking through the last of the dairy properties up at Springbrook.

Independent political watchers have described the behaviour of some booth workers who were antitram and development campaigners as disgraceful.

Katrina Beikoff is an award-winning journalist and sporting club volunteer who has doorknocked homes. Bern Young is on leave from ABC 91, having left as their morning presenter because she is passionate about city planning.

Asking around the booths, both Ms Beikoff and Ms Young are doing well in Burleigh. The veteran councillor is entrenched in Palm Beach.

Neither Ms Young or Ms Beikoff are exchanging preferences. This means the antiDaphne vote will be split, and veteran Burleigh campaign observers suggest it is going to ensure she remains councillor in the division which now expands north across Tallebudgera Creek.

But here’s the thing – please all sing – there’s a tram a comin’, it’s rolling around the bend, and as sure as Ms Young has spun a Johnny Cash disc, both she and Ms Beikoff offer planning solutions which some voters may consider blow the blues away from potential future planning disasters.

DIVISION 14

Gail O’Neill, Gloria Baker

THIS is a line-in-the-sand moment for Currumbin and Coolangatta about the style of future development and tourism opportunities. Just two candidates.

Cr O’Neill is running on her record, which she says is to strike a balance between preserving the beaches and the Hinterland and developing the southern tourism industry.

Ms Baker is an outspoken community advocate, enjoys a profile with groups like Friends of Currumbin.

Voters should watch the Bulletin’s forum on the division. Cr O’Neill was very specific, very confident and upfront about her position on issues like the Kommune project, whether the area needed a new hotel, how high and where any future development should occur.

Ms Baker was more general, and as a submitter opposed to certain developments there is a question on whether she would be able to remain in the room and debate if elected to council.

While Cr O’Neill appeared more forthright in the debate, her campaign team has taken a back step at the booths. Her colleagues are confident she will be returned to council.