Coast’s seats of intrigue

The stakes are high, the margins are tight

HERE are the key Gold Coast seats that could determine whether Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk or the LNP’s Deb Frecklington is premier in a majority or minority government.

GAVEN: Labor, 0.71 per cent margin. MP: Meaghan Scanlon. Labor at $1.55 (Ladbrokes) to win. The northern Gold Coast electorate is Labor’s only seat on the Gold Coast. Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon won office in 2017 with the help of preferences from the Greens. This time there is a One Nation candidate (Sharon Sewell), which could mean Pauline Hanson supporters preferencing the LNP. Kirsten Jackson has doorknocked more than 8000 homes for the LNP. Ms Scanlon has built up a solid profile, worked hard in the community, and her personal vote could see her survive any swing against the government on the COVID-closed border issue.

CURRUMBIN: LNP 3.3 per cent. MP: Laura Gerber. Labor at $2 (Ladbrokes).

The LNP’s Laura Gerber won the March by-election in a tight race with the ALP’s Kaylee Campradt. Ms Campradt returns for a much different contest, given COVID-19 and the likely backlash from Coolangatta residents about Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s tough stand on closing the borders. Enter Richard Stuckey, husband of former MP Jann Stuckey, and his decision to preference Labor. Ms Stuckey is a former minister with two decades of public office, so she and her husband have supporters. Ms Gerber has built up a strong profile in a short time but the Stuckey factor could

bring her plans for a second term unstuck.

BURLEIGH: LNP 4.9 per cent. MP: Michael Hart. Labor at $3 (Ladbrokes).

The LNP has what should be a comfortable margin but this is a really interesting contest. Former world champion surfer Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew and his Labor team have forced Mr Hart, an LNP frontbencher, to put in $20,000 from his own pocket to boost his campaign. Labor has not had such a high-profile candidate in the past, or the Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk ducking down for walks on the beach. With Rabbit, the margin could be much less than 4.9 per cent and the seat might be a shock ALP win.

BONNEY: LNP 1.69 per cent. MP: Sam O’Connor. Labor at $3.75 (Ladbrokes). Similar to Ms Scanlon in Gaven, Mr O’Connor is a young politician who works hard in the community and builds a profile talking to families outside the school gate along with other constituents on Facebook. Given no discernible swing, he should be swimming well in this seat. But this all changed when his leader Deb Frecklington was asked about whether she supported working with council on mayor Tom Tate’s proposed offshore oceanside cruise ship terminal. She replied “yes”. Save Our Spit fired off a torpedo into Mr O’Connor’s campaign on Facebook, putting his headshot at the front of cruise ships.

The LNP’s Michael Hart and Labor’s Wayne Bartholomew with Burleigh pre-poll voters. Picture: Glenn Hampson Currumbin candidates: Labor’s Kaylee Campradt, left; The Greens’ Peter Burgoyne; the LNP’s Laura Gerber; and One Nation’s Sharon Sewell.

Gaven candidates: Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon, left; the LNP’s Kirsten Jackson; The Greens’ Sally Spain; and One Nation’s Glen Wadsworth.

Bonney candidates: the LNP’s Sam O’Connor, left; Labor’s Ash Borg; and the United Australia Party’s David Bark.