STATS THAT HAUNT THE WARRIORS
Fox Sports Lab and Lachlan Mckirdy from Code Sports delve into the numbers to find out what’s wrong with the woeful Warriors
“We’ve got more jerseys than trophies.” It was the throwaway line from forward Jazz Tevaga that encapsulated the feelings of Warriors fans after their disappointing 24-16 loss to the Knights in round 12.
Simple errors, inefficient attack and lacklustre defence but still feeling close to victory – it’s been a similar story in recent years with only one finals appearance (2018) in the last decade. With the return of prodigal son Shaun Johnson, the emergence of fullback Reece Walsh and an imposing forward pack, there were high expectations for the Warriors.
But the 2022 season is already on the line for Nathan Brown’s men after only four wins as they sit precariously in 12th position.
Back to basics
The Warriors sit last for three of the most fundamental attacking statistics: run metres (1239 metres), tackle busts (22.5) and offloads (6.3).
Addin Fonua-blake (144 metres) is the only current Warriors forward who averages over 100 running metres a game. His total run metres (1586 metres) make up 10.7 per cent of the Warriors’ total run metres.
Walsh is likewise producing the majority of the Warriors’ tackle busts. He accounts for 43 of his side’s 270 on the year (15.9 per cent).
The regression from 2021 has been astounding. Last year, the Warriors were the fifth-best team for offloads, creating scoring opportunities off the back of keeping the ball alive. It has been a steep drop-off with only Tevaga and Josh Curran averaging more than one offload a game this season.
There has been an over-reliance on certain players to step up when, realistically, run metres, tackle breaks and offloads are areas where all players should be contributing.
The Warriors have shown improvement with their average run metres up to 1405 metres across the last three weeks. But it’s the dire performances that stick out, with only 688 metres against the Storm in their round seven capitulation, and 1019 metres against the Sharks in round nine, despite playing a portion of the game with a two-man advantage.
Showings like that have led to the Warriors having the worst net run metres in the competition, currently averaging -208 metres per game. This year’s competition shows how important positive net run metres are.
The Broncos (-20 metres) are the only current top-eight side with a negative return.
Throw in other factors such injury, form and suspension and the Warriors have used the most players in the competition this season (29). That has meant it has been impossible for their combinations to generate any chemistry, with an average of 2.9 changes to their team sheet each week.
No player has started all 12 games for the Warriors this year. Bunty Afoa is the only one to appear in every match, coming off the bench in all but one of them. Nathan Brown has refused to use that as an excuse.
“We’re a club that has had one finals game in 11 years, so we’re trying to do things to make our club better,” Brown said after the Knights loss. “I think our younger players are improving. If you look at Reece Walsh, Marcelo Montoya, Wayde Egan, there are plenty of players who are far better players than they were 12 months ago.
“But winning games and team synergy is not going well enough. “And that’s on me.” Looking at Brown’s coaching record, most notably his four-year stint at the Knights, similar trends emerge.
At Newcastle, Brown only won 26 per cent of his matches in charge and claimed the wooden spoon in his first two seasons in 2016 and 2017.
Even in his last two seasons, despite some obvious improvements, the Knights’ run metres were down across the board, ranking 16th and 15th in the competition in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
They also fell behind in offloads, ranking 15th in both years.
First-half chaos
Without a guarantee of good ball position as the game wears on, the Warriors have shown a propensity to attack hard, early, in the hope that they can take advantage while teams are still settling into the match.
In first halves, the Warriors have scored the fourth-most points this season. Only the Panthers, Storm and Raiders rank better. But that attacking focus has cost them in defence with no team conceding more points than the Warriors in the first 40 minutes. The 20 minutes before halftime is statistically their worst, conceding 96 points in total, and conceding 12 points in that period on five different occasions.
By the time the second half comes around, the Warriors have struggled to make an impact on the scoreboard. They score the second-fewest amount of points in the second 40 minutes with 5.8 per game.
Since 2016, the Warriors have only won 12 of 27 matches (44 per cent) during the six-week Origin period. Yet over the last six seasons, it has been their most productive period of the season. Before Origin, they have only won 42 per cent of matches, while it drops to 33 per cent after the Origin period.
The Warriors need to find a way to turn things around in attack. Using their improving run metres to propel them to victory against a Manly side without both Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-evans is exactly where they need to start.