Sanctions Revive Crackdown
TEHRAN — President Donald J. Trump of the United States says his decision to leave the nuclear agreement is having a huge impact on Iran. He is right, Iranians say, but for the wrong reasons.
Mr. Trump said Iran is changing its behavior in the region, implying that its leaders had been chastened or cowed by the American move. But analysts say there has been little change in Iran’s regional posture. The real impact has been on internal politics, with a repression on even hints of dissent, and on the economy.
“A good economic and political process was underway in Iran,” said Mirzababa Motaharinezhad, a spokesman for Mardomsalary, a moderate political group. “Unfortunately, after Trump pulled out from the deal openness ended here and a crackdown on activists resumed.”
In the region, it seems to be business as usual. In Syria, where Iran has played a crucial role in keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power, three Iranian soldiers were killed during battles in June.
“Trump has this illusion that because he left the nuclear agreement, we are forced to change our behavior in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine,” said Hossein Sheikholeslam, a special adviser to Iran’s foreign minister. “No way we are doing that. If we ever change our policies, it will have nothing to do with Trump or anyone in the White House or elsewhere.”
In the alleyways of Tehran’s bazaars and the car dealerships in affluent parts of the city, Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement has added to economic woes.
In late June, protesters gathered outside Parliament in Tehran to complain about the economy, and the police fired tear gas to disperse them. The Grand Bazaar had to close because of protests.
Iran’s economy already was in a bad state. In less than a year, the rial, Iran’s currency, declined by 50 percent in value against the dollar. This led to a sharp increase in the prices of imported goods. In an effort to shield their savings, many people are buying real estate, gold and cars, driving up prices of those assets.
“Finding a safe place for my savings has become nearly impossible,” said Asgar Kouhpaee, 55, an egg wholesaler. He said he always kept his savings in cars, but this year he missed his chance. A Toyota RAV4, a midscale SUV model that sold for $68,000 here last August now costs around $100,000.
Many people seem to blame their leaders, rather than President Trump or others.
“Even if the nuclear agreement was fully implemented, and all the money reached here and the banking system was not under sanction, the mismanagement inside the country would have squandered the oil revenue and other transactions,” said Reza Khandan, the husband of Nasrin Sotoudeh, a prominent human rights lawyer who was arrested in June.
Recently, the Iranian authorities were caught off guard when an Instagram post from a former Iranian soccer star, Ali Karimi, calling for a consumer boycott was shared 800,000 times. He was promptly hauled into court. His case is under review.
The judicial authorities have also ramped up pressure on dissidents, most notably with the arrest of Ms. Sotoudeh.
The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted all was well in a speech. “The people are awake,” he said. “They are motivated and they are not tired.”