Europe and U.S. Are Divided Over Iran
BRUSSELS — Of all the issues dividing Europe and the Trump administration, Iran has become the sharpest, with the Europeans actively working against United States policy, placing them in league with Russia, China and Iran.
Since earlier this year, when it pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration has pressed ahead with sanctions against Tehran. Meanwhile, the leading countries of Europe, trying to preserve the nuclear accord, are looking to set up an alternative payment mechanism that would sidestep the American- dominated banking system, and the new sanctions.
As they do so, they are pressing Iran to adhere to the terms of the nuclear agreement, to avoid giving the United States and Israel a pretext for starting a war — an increasing concern. And they are counseling Tehran to keep calm and wait out President Donald J. Trump’s term, in the hope that he will not be re- elected, senior European diplomats say.
That could be wishful thinking, but the divergent policies toward Iran are leading to deeper tensions between the European Union and the Trump administration.
Last month, the national security adviser, John R. Bolton, mocked the European Union for being “strong on rhetoric and weak on follow- through,” adding: “We do not intend to allow our sanctions to be evaded by Europe or anyone else.”
Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal “opened a rift between the U. S. and its European allies that is unlikely to close again as long as he is in office,” wrote Volker Perthes director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
The latest American sanctions against Iran, scheduled to take effect November 4, will be the toughest so far, hitting the country’s oil industry and central bank. The sale of Iranian oil and petrochemical products will be restricted, and foreign financial institutions will face sanctions for transactions with the Iranian central bank.
To get around the penalties, the Europeans are hoping to create a “special purpose vehicle” to allow payments related to Iranian exports, including oil, and Iranian imports, “to assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate business with Iran,” according to the European Union.
The main objective is to allow Iran to keep selling its oil, on which much of its economy depends. Iran’s oil exports have declined signifi- cantly since August, putting pressure on supporters of the nuclear deal in Tehran and strengthening more hard-line elements that want to start enriching uranium again.
“The primary objective of the European Union is to provide a face-saving way for Iran to stay” in the deal, said Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The Europeans are trying with Russia and China to create an economic package for Iran.”
The question is how far the Trump administration will go to enforce sanctions, and whether it will allow waivers for work with Iran’s civilian nuclear program, Ms. Geranmayeh said. “But if the deal collapses altogether, you can bet Iran will expand its nuclear program,” she said.
Given the tensions between Iran and Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in addition to Israel, a war is not inconceivable. A conflict over Syria, especially with Iranian and Iranian- backed forces near the Israeli- occupied Golan Heights, could create a pretext for Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, as it wanted to do before the nuclear deal was signed. And while President Barack Obama restrained Israel, Mr. Trump might not.
But it remains unclear if the European efforts will succeed. Big mul- tinational firms like Total, Peugeot, Renault, Eni, Siemens and Daimler are already pulling out of Iran, saying they cannot risk being shut out of the American financial system.
The Europeans are telling Tehran that the nuclear pact is not just an economic deal, “but has important political and security dimensions for Iran, and so far Iran is listening,” Ms. Geranmayeh said.
Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear expert and the president of the Ploughshares Fund, which is committed to nonproliferation, wrote recently that the Trump administration seems to be heading toward a war in the Middle East. He accused both Mr. Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of “cherry- picking intelligence and inflating threats,” adding: “They’re making specious connections between Iran and terrorists, including Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. And they’re ratcheting up their rhetoric.”
Mr. Cirincione said that tensions would worsen with stiff new sanctions and believes that the chance of a military conflict is increasing.
His dark view is precisely what European officials fear, and precisely why they are trying to persuade Iran to adhere to the nuclear deal, to modify its behavior in the region, and to wait out the Trump presidency.