Russian expert: OSCE MG’s mechanisms on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict not workout

The mechanisms of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict do not work out, said Igor Seleznev, Ph. D., senior research fellow of the Institute of Social and Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The mechanisms of the OSCE Minsk Group on the NagornoKarabakh conflict do not work out, said Igor Seleznev, Ph. D., senior research fellow of the Institute of Social and Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

He made the remark during discussions on ways of resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan NagornoKarabakh conflict, organized by the Baku Network expert council.

He said that in many ways, the mechanisms, created by the OSCE Minsk Group, are running in vain. “If these mechanisms do not work, there is a need to create alternative spaces to resolve the conflict,” added the expert.

The OSCE Minsk Group, the activities of which have become known as the Minsk Process, works to find a peaceful solution to the NagornoKarabakh conflict for over two decades, but its activities have bring no breakthrough result so far.

Seleznyov noted that if today there is an agreement about some ‘road map’ to resolve the conflict, this means that the technology for its implementation also exists.

“Because of specific, diplomatic and acute nature of the problem, not all the algorithms of ‘road map’ are voiced not to derail the whole process,” the expert clarified.

During the discussions, Seleznyov pointed out three scenarios of the conflict resolution: optimistic, inertial and catastrophic.

The optimistic scenario assumes a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The inertial scenario means the continuation of the current situation, which may result in resumption of hostilities at any time, the expert said.

Finally, the catastrophic scenario assumes strong escalation of the situation, intervention of major powers in the conflict with some initiatives, and recognition of certain territorial entities as ‘states’, which can lead to unpredictable results, Seleznyov noted.

Seleznyov also noted that the ability of Russia to influence the resolution of the conflict is often being overstated.

“Russia is currently unable to influence the resolution of the conflict, and there is a need to find other alternative spaces,” said Seleznyov.

Russia along with the U.S. and France is a co-chair country of the OSCE Minsk Group established to broker a peace to the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia is considered a key party in brokering a lasting solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Armenia broke out a lengthy war against Azerbaijan laying territorial claims on its South Caucasus neighbor. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts. More than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and over 1 million were displaced as a result of the large-scale hostilities. The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations.

Armenia ignores four UN Security Council resolutions on immediate withdrawal from the occupied territory of Azerbaijan, thus keeping tension high in the region.