Karabakh conflict remains at risk of surge of armed confrontation
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict always passes through the points of tension, which risk a surge of armed confrontation, Mikhail Neyzhmakov, an analyst in the Russian Agency for Political and Economic Communications, told Day.az on December 19.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict always passes through the points of tension, which risk a surge of armed confrontation, Mikhail Neyzhmakov, an analyst in the Russian Agency for Political and Economic Communications, told Day.az on December 19.
One of the most serious such points in 2017 was the aggravation of the situation in the conflict zone in early July amid the tragic death of a woman and a two-year-old girl from the Azerbaijani side, the expert reminded.
On July 4, the Armenian armed forces using mortars and grenade launchers shelled the Alkhanli village of Azerbaijan’s Fuzuli region, and as a result, residents of the village Sahiba Guliyeva, and her granddaughter Zahra were killed.
“It became possible to overcome the points of tension in 2017 also for the reason that the parties themselves were not in the mood for a large-scale conflict under these circumstances,” said Neyzhmakov, adding that even a small conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh under these conditions would be extremely unprofitable for their partners and allies.
The expert also noted another aspect of the Karabakh settlement, which is traditionally associated with many inflated expectations – these are attempts to take steps towards a cardinal resolution of the conflict.
“Equally traditionally these expectations have not been fulfilled. Intensive diplomatic contacts do not always mean a speedy result, even an intermediate one,” said Neyzhmakov.
It is noteworthy that representatives of involved powers did not want to create inflated expectations in the Karabakh issue. For instance, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan noted in mid-November this year that Russian President Putin has no high hopes on a speedy progress in the Karabakh issue. Some time later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in Yerevan that the problem is difficult and the negotiations will not be completed quickly.
Neyzhmakov believes that in 2018, there will also be very significant factors that will further impede progress in the Karabakh talks.
“The parties to the conflict will be too “self-immersed,” and Syria, where some risk factors are increasing, will continue to attract attention of important foreign policy players,” the expert said. “Against this background, international mediators will pay less attention to the Karabakh conflict in 2018, although new initiatives in this direction are not ruled out.”
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding regions. More than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and over 1 million were displaced as a result of the large-scale hostilities. The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations.
Until now, Armenia controls fifth part of Azerbaijan’s territory and rejects implementing four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from NagornoKarabakh and surrounding districts.