Global economic uncertainty

“2017 is likely to be a bumpy year for the global economy, with major economies facing political uncertainty too. The American economy will be led by a new president who faces a backlash against globalisation that could stymie trade deals. Even though it’s unlikely that globalisation will be rolled back, the lack of progress on opening markets and rising protectionist sentiment may contribute to prolonging the stagnant trade growth of the past year. China, the world’s second biggest economy, continues to be plagued by concerns over its slowing growth and rising levels of debt and could also see its president consolidating more power, which adds another level of uncertainty. The Chinese government is likely to continue to use fiscal stimulus to boost growth in 2017, despite concerns over how investment adds to debt. Finally, France, Germany and others all have elections or a referendum in 2017 that could see changes in government at a crucial time for the Eurozone, and the UK plans to formally trigger Brexit talks by March 2017. For all these nations, political headwinds may well be as important as economic reform plans in 2017.” – Linda Yueh, Adjunct Professor of Economics