Global eco­nomic un­cer­tainty

ArabAd - - FORECAST -

“2017 is likely to be a bumpy year for the global econ­omy, with ma­jor economies fac­ing po­lit­i­cal un­cer­tainty too. The Amer­i­can econ­omy will be led by a new pres­i­dent who faces a back­lash against glob­al­i­sa­tion that could stymie trade deals. Even though it’s un­likely that glob­al­i­sa­tion will be rolled back, the lack of progress on open­ing mar­kets and ris­ing pro­tec­tion­ist sen­ti­ment may con­trib­ute to pro­long­ing the stag­nant trade growth of the past year. China, the world’s sec­ond big­gest econ­omy, con­tin­ues to be plagued by con­cerns over its slow­ing growth and ris­ing lev­els of debt and could also see its pres­i­dent con­sol­i­dat­ing more power, which adds an­other level of un­cer­tainty. The Chi­nese gov­ern­ment is likely to con­tinue to use fis­cal stim­u­lus to boost growth in 2017, de­spite con­cerns over how in­vest­ment adds to debt. Fi­nally, France, Ger­many and oth­ers all have elec­tions or a ref­er­en­dum in 2017 that could see changes in gov­ern­ment at a cru­cial time for the Eu­ro­zone, and the UK plans to for­mally trig­ger Brexit talks by March 2017. For all these na­tions, po­lit­i­cal head­winds may well be as im­por­tant as eco­nomic re­form plans in 2017.” – Linda Yueh, Ad­junct Pro­fes­sor of Eco­nomics

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