India likely to witness ‘above normal’ monsoon
NEW DELHI: India is likely to witness ‘above normal’ monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
India likely to see above-normal monsoon, with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of long-period average of 87 cm, it added.
According to the MET department, El Nino conditions likely to weaken in early monsoon. The weak la Nina conditions will develop which will help monsoon.
The IMD said analysis showed that in 22 La Nina years, most years have recorded above normal or normal monsoon except 1974 and 2000 when below normal rain was recorded.
“According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced new long-period average and normal.
“According to this normal, from June 1 to 30 September, the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87 cm,” M Ravichanran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said in a briefing.
“Snow cover over northern hemisphere this spring was below normal. That has an inverse relationship with southwest monsoon rainfall hence above normal rainfall is expected,” the IMD stated.
The IMD in a statement said that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season.
The monsoon prediction comes days ater the IMD had predicted intense heatwave conditions in the summer, when Lok Sabha elections will be held.
IMD chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra had warned that the country will face intense heat during the election period.
He stated that the department has not proposed any changes to the timings of public rallies and voting.
The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-september, is expected to total 106% of the long-term average this year, said M. Ravichandran.
India badly needs good monsoon rains as below-normal rainfall in 2023 depleted reservoir levels and hit food production.
The government responded by imposing curbs on exports of sugar, rice, onions, and wheat.
Resuming exports depends on how quickly production recovers in 2024, which is not possible without good monsoon rainfall.