The House passes aid, but Ukraine still has problems
For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his troops on the front line, relief is hopefully coming soon. On Saturday, the US House of Representatives muscled through a $61 billion military aid package at a time when Russian forces are continuing to chip away at Ukrainian positions in the east. Ater six months of intense discussions between House Speaker Mike Johnson and his fractious Republican conference, Johnson put the Ukraine aid legislation on the floor, knowing it wouldn’t sit well with the far right wing of the party.
In the end, the House passed the legislation, sending it back to the Senate for consideration. Ukraine and its backers in Washington and Europe were thrilled. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took to X to congratulate the House for moving the bill ater six long months. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pressed the Senate to quickly take up the legislation. Zelensky was the happiest of them all, jumping on American television the morning ater the vote and asserting that the new infusion of military assistance means that Ukraine has a chance at victory.
All of these celebrations, however, may be premature. Far from the ultimate victory Zelensky and his team are hoping for, the new US aid will likely stabilise the current batle lines and at best enable Ukrainian forces to fend off further Russian gains. Advancement by Ukraine shouldn’t be ruled out, but expectations ought to be kept at a reasonable level. This isn’t to suggest that tens of billions of additional dollars won’t have any effect on the batlefield. It most certainly will. The Ukrainian army, for instance, has been heavily outgunned by the Russians since the fall. During testimony to the House Armed Services Commitee this month, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top US military officer in Europe, told lawmakers that Russia had a 5-1 advantage over Ukraine in artillery shells, a ration that would turn into 10-1 if the House didn’t move on the aid bill. Ukrainian troops, seeing their inventory depleted, had to ration shells and choose targets accordingly. The Russians, in contrast, could blanket an entire area with artillery without hesitation.
The lack of artillery rounds wasn’t Ukraine’s only problem. Kyiv was also running out of the air defence interceptors that were absolutely crucial to destroying Russian missiles. The Russians no doubt understood this and tried to exploit it, launching missile bombardments for the mere purpose of forcing the Ukrainians to use what they had let. The Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which Russia tried but failed to capture during the war’s initial months, is now brutalised on a daily basis with incessant Russian mortar and missile fire. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is taking a beating as well. All of this is by design. Russia is forcing the Ukrainians to prioritise which targets mater most to them: positions close to the front, civilian areas behind the lines or fuel sources that keep the country’s lights on.
The new US aid will help with all of this. You can bet US officials at the Pentagon drew up a list of gear and equipment months ago. Ater more than two years of supporting Ukraine with ammunition, air defence systems, tanks and antitank missiles, the Pentagon long ago became an expert at delivering this kind of equipment. Once Biden signs the bill into law, it’s full steam ahead. Yet it would be a gross misreading of the war to assume that military aid alone will fix all of Ukraine’s problems. It won’t. For one thing, all the bullets, interceptors and shells in the world won’t address Ukraine’s manpower issues. Part of the issue is that Russia simply has a population three times the size of Ukraine and therefore more bodies to throw into the war. (Ukrainian officials assess that Russia is recruiting 30,000 men into the army every month.)